I’m starting this blog without a clear picture of what what I’d like to focus on, so I will likely try different types of content.  This is primarily a place for me hold myself accountable to a structured and academic approach to betting rather than a compulsive and impulsive one.  I likely will write articles in place of betting in the real world.  So let me start by saying here that I do not recommend blinding betting my plays.  I likely won’t be betting them myself and will likely use this blog as a sandbox environment to test new theory’s and new markets and keep track of what I am learning in the process.

Above all I want to promote responsible gambling habits.  I won’t be promising quick returns or locks of the century on this page and I never intend on selling any picks.  This will be a completely transparent learning process.  Those who find value in these posts are the kind of sports bettors that I would like to network with.  If anything you read on this site resonates with you and you would like to talk more about it, I encourage you to reach out to me through X (Formerly Twitter) or Threads @JaredBets.

With that said – a comfortable starting place for me at the moment is Formula 1.  I will also work in the NFL, but I’m not at the point where I am making predictions yet.

Focus Area 1 – Formula 1 Racing –  I admit to being a Drive to Survive convert when it comes to Formula 1 racing (or racing of any kind for that matter), but I have really enjoyed learning more about the sport.  There can be value in making predictions and analyzing them after the event, so I want to go through that exercise in real time through the last half of the 2023 season.  I will not be betting real money for now because above all else I want to set a good example for responsible betting in this blog and the responsible thing to do is to make sure you can beat a sport before placing real bets.

Focus Area 2 – NFL Guessing Lines –  I am in the early stages of building an NFL model, but that is going to take some time to develop. In the meantime I’d like to get some practice thinking about the NFL and how betting lines work. To keep things simple I’ve put together a rough list of power rankings entering the 2023 season. I’m going to ignore totals for now when it comes to the power rankings. That isn’t to say that I won’t have opinions on the totals in a case where there are favorable matchups all pointing in one direction, but it isn’t something that I will quantify week to week. I’m going to ignore all week 1 wagers and start with week 1 reactions leading into week 2 predictions. I will consider teaser legs, parlays, and maybe even prop bets as I learn more about how to handicap and bet the NFL. I may write about some daily fantasy work too as I improve the resources available on my YouTube page.

Focus Area 3 – Major League Baseball –  With the MLB season winding down it is time for me to get back in touch with the sport and prepare for the postseason. I definitely want to write about the postseason games on here in preparation for futures bets next year. I should look into the team contracts and well and work on team rankings entering next year, at least among those teams who make the playoffs or just miss out. The rest I can catch up with in the offseason. I have a very detailed baseball model in excel, I will utilize it some, but I want to keep a lot of my writing and handicapping free of model jargon for this season where possible. There is plenty of time in the offseason to dive deeper and prepare for 2024.