The start of the F1 season caught me off guard this year, testing was half over before I even realized it was going on. But, I did my homework and watched every single hour of testing and now I can’t wait to find out how much I am about to get wrong. It is a long season and there will be a lot of twists and turns. I’m going to start easy and not get too crazy too fast because F1 will remain largely the same over the next two years (albeit with a very different driver lineup next year), so there will be nearly 50 races to handicap and sports betting should always be about long term profit and not taking short term chances. It is always important not to play yourself out of the game too early. With that said, let’s get downright irresponsible because it is the first race of the season and chances are I’m not going to be able to help it.

The difference this year is that I’m actually betting my picks. If you followed along last year you’ll notice I made insane amounts of fake money because I wasn’t actually placing bets at that time. Now that I am putting real money on my picks I fully expect to start off losing so follow these picks at your own risk. By the end of the season, though, I’m confident I can turn a profit in these markets.

In no particular order, these are the markets that interest me. I will list bets, leans, and considerations, but I only place money on the bets (which means leans and considerations are more likely to hit if you are playing at home). Let’s get started. Happy F1.

Carlos Sainz FP1 Winner +700 – Red Bull hasn’t been terribly concerned with showing their pace. Ferrari has topped a few sessions in practice, and Sainz has the longest odds at Ferrari. I’ll take a chance with $10.

Max Verstappen to win Qualifying -155 – This may be the lowest price we get him all year. This is a max bet for me that I’m not afraid to lose. $77.50 to win $50 would be considered a max bet for me right now.

Lando Norris podium in race +400 – In case McLaren is faster than Ferrari, this is worth a $25 bet.

Oscar Piastri podium in race +1400 – I don’t expect this to happen, but I’ll put $10 on it since McLaren had a few double podiums last year, and I don’t think it is all that out of the question for Oscar to out-qualify Lando. The kid can drive, he is one of the most decorated drivers of all time at this stage in his career.

Oscar Piastri top 6 in race +250 – I really believe Oscar is in the top 6 right now, so I like this bet a lot. I’ll go with $40 at +250 and hope he podiums and I can win both. Let’s hope Mercedes is down and Ferrari starts their season with some strategy woes and tire degradation issues.

McLaren both drivers to finish top 6 +450 – I’ll throw another $20 on this, the odds are just too good, trying not to get crazy, but I don’t want to miss value either. Mercedes could ruin this one for me pretty quickly.

Leclerc > Hamilton -155 – This feels low to me, but I don’t want to get crazy and max bet everything because things can happen. $62 to win $40.

Alpine > Sauber -120 – This feels low, I know Alpine has been tempering expectations, but I still think they will be good enough to finish ahead of Sauber. It would be quite the fall for them to be behind this team.

Verstappen and Leclerc both finish top 3 +125 – This is a parlay to hedge against my McLaren top 3 bets, and I think it is more likely. $40 to win $50 feels like too much, but $20 feels too small and I like round numbers. See what I mean about starting slow?

Kevin Magnussen to finish in last position +250 – I like this bet a lot at $40 to win $60 only to save $10 for a hedge in the next bet.

Nico Hulkenberg to finish in last position +600 – I will put $10 on this just in case Hulkenberg isn’t that much better than Magnussen. I think Haas will struggle enough that they will be at the back of the pack to start the season at least.

Norris > Alonso +115 – $40 to win $46 only to keep the numbers round.

Verstappen to win qualifying, register fastest lap, lead all laps, and win the race +600 – because I think it could definitely happen. $30 on this.

Qualifying VER>PER, HUL>MAG, ALO>STR, ALB>SAR, NOR>PIA Parlay +240 – I never get too crazy on these as good as they sound because a lot of things can happen. $30 to win $74 is good here.

Carlos Sainz to win qualifying +500 – $20 to win $100 is worth it here if Ferrari is fastest, he was quick last year and has a lot to prove.

I definitely went crazy here, but if I have my handicap right then race 1 may be the best time to make some money.