My recommendation to everyone once you get to know a sport is to find a way to handicap the season yourself before looking at any betting lines. It is always a good exercise in determining where your skill level is when it comes to handicapping the sport. How well you do overall compared to the market will tell you how much you can trust your own opinions/numbers/model/etc. That doesn’t mean a complete handicap or a complete ranking system; I like to put teams, players, or in this case, drivers, in general tiers and write out my opinions on each. Then, I compare my thoughts to the betting lines and make determinations on whether or not I think there is value in making a bet.

Tier 1:

1. Max Verstappen – Red Bull – It would be nearly impossible for him to replicate his dominance from last season, but he has certainly shown no indication of slowing down yet. Red Bull knew everyone else would copy as much of their design as possible so they broke the mold and went an entirely different direction. To add insult to injury to Mercedes this season, they seemed to have drawn inspiration from the original design from Toto’s camp (but without the porpoising issues that ultimately caused Mercedes to abandon it). I’m not bored by his dominance, I’m in awe at his skill and I can’t wait to see what he can do this year.

Tier 2:

2. Sergio Perez – Red Bull – Sergio Perez struggled last year so much that there has to be some truth to this idea that a car designed for Max is hard for anyone else to drive. Albon once described it as playing a computer game with mouse sensitivity at 1000. Putting Sergio at 2 is more of a bet on Red Bull than it is Sergio, but I do think he is a great driver that will be doing everything he can to keep his seat with half of the drivers in the field driving to take it from him. The more I think about it though, the more I think he will struggle to pull away from Ferrari and McLaren. He will likely have to do it on the track with race pace, because I think Lando and Charles will out-qualify him frequently.

3. Charles Leclerc – Ferrari – There are two religions in Italy, the Roman Catholic Church and Ferrari. The team has gone so long without winning that pressure is at an all time high to not let Red Bull pull away again. Ferrari looked great in testing so I think they will challenge Red Bull at least in qualifying, the real test will be if they figured out a way to manage their tires more effectively (and make less mistakes). I think they will make a step forward this year, but not enough to finish any higher than 2nd in the constructors. The two Ferrari drivers are going to be interesting to watch this year. Sainz is a great driver who has a lot to prove to end up in a strong drive for near year, but he is on a team that will be prioritizing Charles. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Carlos challenge him, but I still think Leclerc edges him out.

4. Carlos Sainz – Ferrari – I already said a lot about him above so not much left to say. I would love to see him drive well this year, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see him race well with Charles as a team as they work to bring Ferrari closer to Red Bull in the constructors championship. He at least owes Charles one podium from last year.

5. Lando Norris – McLaren – There will be times this season that Lando is challenging the Ferrari drivers, but I’m worried about McLaren’s consistency so I think they will struggle in the season-long constructors race. Lando is still the senior driver, but watching him compete with Oscar this year, especially in qualifying, is going to be fun to watch. These two drivers pushing each other to get better is going to be great things in the future for the team in papaya.

6. Oscar Piastri – McLaren – He will push Lando, but he won’t get the best of him just yet. Still, I think McLaren will have enough performance to hold off Mercedes at least at the start of the year, but seeing Mercedes pop into this race and start to give Oscar issues at any point in this season wouldn’t surprise me.

Tier 3:

7. Lewis Hamilton – Mercedes – It was tough dropping Mercedes down a tier, it wouldn’t shock me if they prove early on that they are in the race with the top teams, I’m just not sure their pace is there yet. They will likely fear betting in the race than qualifying, and some tracks will lend themselves better to Mercedes’ strengths, but they are going to have to prove it to me before I move them up to the top tier. Not much left to say here, we will see him in red next year.

8. George Russell – Mercedes – I really like George Russell and I think he is a great driver, but he didn’t have nearly as good of a year last year as I expected from him. I still think there is value betting him in qualifying against Hamilton at good positive odds, but in the races Hamilton seems to get the better of him likely through his experience. Like Ferrari, Alpine, and others, we are going to see some interesting clashes this year between the two Mercedes drivers.

9. Fernando Alonso – Aston Martin – Fernando didn’t look as good at practice this year as he did last year, and Aston Martin didn’t make too many waves in terms of upgrades like all of the teams ahead of them. But with that said, Mr. Stroll has deep pockets and won’t like staying in 5th place for long. With Fernando driving and potentially targeting a contract with Mercedes, if they give him a car he will be in the fight with Mercedes at least.

Tier 4:

10. Lance Stroll – Aston Martin – He is far enough from Fernando to be down a tier, but I think Aston’s pace will be enough to keep him a tier above his chasing pack. So Lance gets a whole tier to himself. It is possible that Fernando might end up in his own tier as well. If Aston doesn’t have a really great year and the midfield doesn’t catch up to them, they could be in for some lonely races this season.

Tier 5:

11. Yuki Tsunoda – RB – This was a hard one for me. I really like Daniel Ricciardo and I want to buy into the hype, but after his struggles the last few years with various teams, I just need to see it before I put him above Yuki. I have been extremely impressed with Tsunoda’s driving and his confidence, he genuinely seems to believe he is faster than anyone who walks into the team and so far he has been. I’m going to keep him here until Daniel proves to me that he is driver 1 on this team.

12. Daniel Ricciardo – RB – With all of that said above, I would love to see Daniel have a great year and earn a seat next to Max. I just don’t think I would bet on that at this point. I hope he proves me wrong.

13. Esteban Ocon – Alpine – Alpine and RB will have an interesting fight this year. I think RB has the edge, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see this be a close fight all year. I really struggle betting Ocon and Gasly, I have never been able to separate the two. I think where I’ve landed is that Ocon is more consistent, but Gasly has the highest ceiling in any given race. I think Gasly is the better qualifying bet and there is usually value there, but I like Ocon’s consistency when it comes to the race.

14. Pierre Gasly – Alpine – Not much else to add here, I said it all above. I always want to put Gasly over Ocon, but haven’t been able to talk myself into it very often when it comes to making actual bets. I’ll need to watch them a bit before getting too crazy betting Alpine either way.

15. Alex Albon – Williams – It may be bold bringing Alex Albon up to this tier, but Williams had some promising pace at times. I think when it comes to qualifying Albon will be here consistently, but race pace could bring him further down from this tier. With that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see RB or Alpine drop down either. This tier could be the first one to break up, we will have to see more from these teams first. Alex is a great driver and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get another shot at that Red Bull seat.

Tier 6:

16. Valtteri Bottas – Sauber – He is close to Zhou, but I’ll give him the nod when it comes to experience. Sauber could be worse than this, but I’m going to let them prove that to me before I move them any further down.

17. Guanyu Zhou – Sauber – I’m pretty interested to see his driving this year, Valtteri is just a hard guy to measure him against. I really feel like sometimes Bottas cares a lot, and sometimes he is barely present on a race weekend.

18. Logan Sargent – Williams – Williams could have a good enough car to put him about Sauber, but he really seems to be struggling as a driver in F1. He needs to prove more that he belongs before I move him higher.

Tier 7:

19. Nico Hulkenberg – When it comes to qualifying he will be ranked higher than this, but Haas struggles so much with race pace that I can’t put anyone behind them right away to start the season.

20. Kevin Magnussen – He isn’t a bad driver, but he sure has been in the back alot since joining Haas.