First, I will review last weeks bets to see how they turned out, not sure if the run I’ve been on can really continue much longer, but we will see.

Bets:

Chicago Bears +3 – Lost $110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 – Lost $110

Seattle Seahawks +3 – Lost $110

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 & Washington Commanders +8.5 – Won $100

San Francisco 49ers -0.5 & Philadelphia Eagles -1 – Lost $120

Leans:

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 – Would have Won $100

Cleveland Browns +7.5 – Would have Won $100

Arizona Cardinals +7.5 – Would have Lost $110

Houston Texans +7.5 & LA Chargers +8.5 – Would have Won $100

Considerations:

New York Jets +7 – Would have Won $100

Carolina Panthers +13.5 – Would have Lost $110

Week 7 Betting Profit: Lost $350 on Bets, Would have Won $190 On Leans, and Would have Lost $10 on Considerations.

Total Profit: Risked $3,319 / $1,000 = +30% (Spread Bets 9-8, Teaser Legs 16-2) I finally lost 2 games, thankfully they were both in the same teaser.

Total Profit on Leans: Risked $1,233 / Would have Won $482 = +39%

Total Profit on Considerations: Risked $890 / Would have Won $170 = +19%

Some of the spread bets I lost were close ones, but this is just some regression swinging back the other way. I still have a lot to be proud of when it comes to these picks. Let’s get started with Week 7.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

The Jaguars hosted the Colts as -4 favorites and won 37-20. I think it is best to adjust each of these teams a half point. The Saints visited Houston as -0.5 favorites and won 20 to 13. I could see leaving the teams where they are or adjusting one team by a half point. I like where both of these teams are at the moment so no adjustment.

This would mean this game should be about a pick’em by my numbers. The actual line is Jaguars +1.5. This is an auto-play teaser leg for me, and I’m going to go ahead and take the Jags on the spread too even though my edge isn’t very high, I like the Jaguars in this spot.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Chicago Bears

The Raiders hosted the Patriots as -2 point favorites by my numbers and won 21-17. No adjustments needed for either team. The Bears hosted the Vikings as +1.5 Underdogs and lost 19-13. I don’t really see a reason to adjust either of these teams either.

I will make this game a pick’em. The actual line is Bears +3. This is an automatic bet for me. I don’t think I can adjust any of these numbers just yet which means I should have value on the Bears.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts

The Browns hosted the 49ers as +6.5 point underdogs by my numbers and won the game 19-17. A full point mathematically would be too much here, but watching this game it doesn’t feel like enough. The Browns should be increased by a full point with that defense, and the 49ers have to be dropped at least a half. I already adjusted the Colts.

By my numbers the Browns should be -2.5 point favorites on the road. The actual line is exactly that. I got one right. No Bet.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots

The Bills host the Giants as -13.5 favorites by my numbers and only won 14-9. I think it is appropriate to adjust both teams by a half of a point. The Patriots we already discussed with Las Vegas.

By my numbers the Bills should be -8 Favorites on the road in Foxborough. The actual line is Bills -8.5, there is no bet on this game. I really like the Bills in a teaser spot here though.

Washington Commanders @ New York Giants:

The Commanders visited Atlanta as +1 Underdogs and won 24-16. The adjustment should be either a 0.5 or a full point for this game. The Commanders have room to go up a half point, the Falcons could probably move down too with their quarterback play. I already adjusted the Giants.

This game should be another pick’em by my numbers, but I haven’t been right on one of those yet. I am wrong on this one too, the Commanders are -2.5 point favorites. I’m not confident enough in the Giants to bet them, but I will list this teaser as a Lean Leg. I will also bump the Commanders another half point.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Falcons I have already discussed. The Buccaneers were +1 underdogs at home by my numbers and lost 20-6. This should be a full point adjustment, but I don’t really want to raise the Lions any more, and I only think the Buccaneers should come down a half point.

This should mean the Buccaneers will be -4 Favorites at home. This feels like it may be a little high still. Yea, the real line is only -2.5. I am going to leave the buccaneers for now and just raise the Falcons back up a half point. I am going to take them at -2.5 as well through.

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens

We just talked about the Lions. The Ravens went into Tennessee as -4.5 point favorites by my numbers and won 24-16. I don’t think this calls for an adjustment to either team.

Without any further adjustments the Ravens should be -3.5 point favorites at home. The actual line is Ravens -3. My numbers don’t really support it, but I’m going to still list the Ravens as a consideration here, maybe it is just my bias towards Lamar Jackson.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Rams

The Steelers were on bye last week so they will be coming into this game with extra rest and preparation (or they are coming into this game flat and may start slow, depending on how you look at it). The Rams hosted the Cardinals as -5.5 favorites by my numbers and won 26-9. This adjustment should be between a half and a full point. I think there is room for a full point here and it makes sense within the overall power rankings.

This should mean the Rams are -2.5 point favorites at home. The Actual line is +3, but I’m not ready to back the Steelers +3 in this spot. I can’t even justify it as a consideration. No Bet.

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks

I already adjusted the Cardinals. The Seahawks visited the Bengals as +1.5 underdogs by my numbers and Lost 17-13. I don’t see a reason to adjust either team based on these numbers, but with Burrow getting healthier I think another half point for that is warranted.

This should mean the Seahawks will be -7.5 point Favorites at home. I nailed this one exactly as well. No Bet. The Seahawks could be a potential candidate for a teaser.

Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos

The Packers were on bye last week. The Broncos were on the road at Kansas City as +13 underdogs by my numbers. The final score was 19-8. I don’t think either team needs to be adjusted right now.

This would mean the Packers should be -1.5 Favorites in this game. The actual line is Packers -1 which I’m good with. No Bet here.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Chargers hosted the Cowboys on Monday Night Football as +1 point Underdogs and lose 20-17. Neither of these teams need to be adjusted. The Chiefs I have already decided to leave where they are as well.

This would mean the Chiefs should be -7 favorites at home in what should be a great game. The actual line is -5.5, I think for now I should just adjust the Chargers up a half point to be in line because I’m a little off on this one. I lean Chiefs here, but don’t want to get crazy.

Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Dolphins hosted the Panthers as -13.5 favorites by my numbers and won 42-21. A half point adjustment is perfect here, but I struggle who to give it to. I think I’ll adjust the Dolphins up. The Eagles visited the Jets as -7 favorites by my numbers and lost 20-14. This needs to be a full point adjustment split between the two teams.

These adjustments mean the Eagles should be -2.5 at home. The actual line is exactly Eagles -2.5. No bet here. This is going to be a great game to watch. I am leaning towards teasing the Dolphins up, with that offense a backdoor cover is very much in the cards.

San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings

I already adjusted both of these teams. My numbers show the 49ers as -6.5 point favorites on the road in Minnesota. Actual line is -7. I don’t see value in any of the bets here, but I do like the idea of teasing the 49ers down potentially. It would surprise me to see them lose 2 in a row.

Bets:

Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5

Chicago Bears +3

(Teaser) Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 & San Francisco 49ers -1

(Teaser) Buffalo Bills -1.5 & Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5

(Teaser) Buffalo Bills -135 & San Francisco 49ers -1

Leans:

Kansas City Chiefs -5.5

(Teaser) New York Giants +8.5 & Miami Dolphins +8.5

(Teaser) Seattle Seahawks -1.5 & Miami Dolphins +8.5

(Teaser) Seattle Seahawks -1.5 & New York Giants +8.5

Considerations:

Baltimore Ravens -3