To start, I will grade the rest of my Divisional Series Bets. This isn’t going as well as everything else has so far in this blog. As tempting as it is to press things and try to get even, I’m going to stick with my process.
My Championship Series predictions were:
ALCS – Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins – I got both of these wrong.
NLCS – Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Dbacks – Only the Dbacks were correct
Graded Bets:
Arizona Dbacks to win Wild Card Series +165 – Won $165
Toronto Blue Jays to win Wild Card Series +118 – Lost $100
Miami Marlins to win Wild Card Series +165 – Lost $100
Texas Rangers to win Wild Card Series +140 – Won $140
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves +2000 – Lost $100
Toronto Blue Jays win series 2-1 +285 – Lost $100
Braves to Win the National League +150 – Lost $100
Braves to Win the World Series +330 – Lost $100
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves +1800 – Lost $100
Minnesota Twins to win ALDS +135 – Lost $100
Arizona Diamondbacks to win NLDS +195 – Won $195
Twins to win the American League +370 – Lost $100
Total Profit: Risked $1,200 / Lost $400 = -33%
I have my own method of pricing out the series odds. So I will start with my numbers and then compare them each to the best available market numbers to find the value in the overall series prices for these teams:
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies Series Price -117 (-175 Best Available) – No Bet
Arizona Series Price +117 (+170 Best Available) – Arizona Dbacks +170
Series Ends in 4 Games +706 (+590 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 5 Games +301 (+290 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 6 Games +219 (+205 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 7 Games +220 (+205 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Over 4.5 Games -706 (-800 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Under 4.5 Games +706 (+625 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Over 5.5 Games -168 (-175 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Under 5.5 Games +168 (+155 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Over 6.5 Games +220 (+210 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Under 6.5 Games -220 (-245 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies +3.5 -1739 (-3500 Best Available) – No Bet
Dbacks -3.5 +1739 (+1500 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies +2.5 -470 (-650 Best Available) – No Bet
Dbacks -2.5 +470 (+500 Best Available) – Arizona Dbacks -2.5 +500
Phillies +1.5 -214 (-280 Best Available) – No Bet
Dbacks -1.5 +214 (+260 Best Available) – Arizona Dbacks -1.5 +260
Phillies -1.5 +171 (+135 Best Available) – No Bet
Dbacks +1.5 -171 (-141 Best Available) – Arizona Dbacks +1.5 -141
Phillies -2.5 +404 (+310 Best Available) – No Bet
Dbacks +2.5 -404 (-370 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies -3.5 +1335 (+950 Best Available) – No Bet
Dbacks +3.5 -1335 (-1400 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies Win 4-0 +1335 (+1000 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies Win 4-1 +678 (+550 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies Win 4-2 +486 (+525 Best Available) – No Bet, Contradicts others
Phillies Win 4-3 +484 (+900 Best Available) = Phillies Win 4-3 +900
Arizona Wins 4-3 +607 (+700 Best Available) – Dbacks Win 4-3 +700
Arizona Wins 4-2 +599 (+700 Best Available) – Dbacks Win 4-2 +700
Arizona Wins 4-1 +727 (+850 Best Available) – No Bet. Enough
Arizona Wins 4-0 +1739 (+1500 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies Start 3-0 +636 (+425 Best Available) – No Bet
Phillies Start 2-1 +157 (+125 Best Available) – No Bet
Arizona Starts 2-1 +175 (+180 Best Available) – No Bet
Arizona Starts 3-0 +796 (+900 Best Available) – No Bet
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Astros Series Price -139 (-140 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers Series Price +139 (+125 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 4 Games +706 (+580 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 5 Games +300 (+270 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 6 Games +218 (+215 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Ends in 7 Games +221 (+205 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Over 4.5 Games -706 (-750 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Under 4.5 Games +706 (+600 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Over 5.5 Games -167 (-180 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Under 5.5 Games +167 (+155 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Over 6.5 Games +221 (+205 Best Available) – No Bet
Series Under 6.5 Games -221 (-235 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros +3.5 -1933 (-2500 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers -3.5 +1933 (+1400 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros +2.5 -522 (-525 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers -2.5 +522 (+400 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros +1.5 -243 (-250 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers -1.5 +243 (+220 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros -1.5 +152 (+145 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers +1.5 -152 (-170 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros -2.5 +369 (+340 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers +2.5 -369 (-425 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros -3.5 +1235 (+1000 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers +3.5 -1235 (-1600 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros Win 4-0 +1235 (+1100 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros Win 4-1 +623 (+600 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros Win 4-2 +443 (+440 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros Win 4-3 +445 (+550 Best Available) – Astros Win 4-3 +445
Rangers Win 4-3 +683 (+550 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers Win 4-2 +667 (+600 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers Win 4-1 +796 (+730 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers Win 4-0 +1933 (+1400 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros Start 3-0 +489 (+460 Best Available) – No Bet
Astros Start 2-1 +143 (+130 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers Start 2-1 +203 (+175 Best Available) – No Bet
Rangers Start 3-0 +1036 (+800 Best Available) – No Bet
Bets:
Arizona Dbacks +1.5 -141
Arizona Dbacks +170
Arizona Dbacks -1.5 +260
Arizona Dbacks -2.5 +500
Dbacks Win 4-2 +700
Dbacks Win 4-3 +700
Phillies Win 4-3 +900
Astros Win 4-3 +445
Game 1 – Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros
Bets:
Yordan Alvarez 3+ Total Bases +220 and 2+ Total Bases +115
Alex Bregman 3+ Total Bases +270 and 2+ Total Bases +135
Marcus Semien + Corey Seager 5+ Total Bases +130
Astros/Rangers Over 8.5 -105
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