As always, I will start by reviewing my bets from last week to review where I stand on the season. Then, I will go game by game to adjust my power rankings and predict the lines for next week. Then, I’ll record where I see value.

Bets from last week:

Bets:

Buffalo Bills -5.5 – Lost $110

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 – Won $100

Bengals -3 – Won $100

Dallas Cowboys +3.5 – Lost $110

New York Jets +1.5 – Won $100

(Teaser) New York Jets +7.5 & Houston Texans +8.5 – Won $100

(Teaser) Miami Dolphins -5 & Houston Texans +8.5 – Won $100

(Teaser) Miami Dolphins -5 & New York Jets +7.5 – Won $100

Leans:

Houston Texans +2 – Would have Pushed

Consideration:

Carolina Panthers +2 – Would have Lost $110

Green Bay Packers -0.5 – Would have Lost $110

(Teaser) Pittsburgh Steelers +10 & Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 – Would have Won $100

Week 6 Betting Profit: +$380 on Bets, I would have broken even on Leans and Lost $120 on Considerations.

Total Profit : Risked $2,749 / Won $1,350 = +49% (Spread Bets 9-5, Teaser Legs 14-0) This is getting a little crazy with the Teaser Picks.

Total Profit on Leans: Risked $783 / Would have Won $292 = +37%

Total Profit: Considerations $670 / Would have won $180 = +27%

Things continue to go well for me with these picks. I’m trying to resist getting into that mental head space of “of course this works when I take a break from actually betting these picks.” Even though the pain of missing out on this profit is real (though these units are more than twice my standard unit), I need to take a lesson in this. Maybe this has more to do with the way I view things than just bad luck. Maybe the sign here is that if I treat this as a though excercise and not a way to profit I may start to see betting results. I’m not getting crazy here, because there is no benefit to it. I’m simply deciding where the value is and making bets, there is no excitement factor that the money brings. Sure, it makes it less fun, but it is clear that I am having more success. Let’s talk Week 6.

Week 6:

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs

The Broncos hosted the Jets as -1 Favorites and lost 31-21. This adjustment is somewhere between a point and a point and a half. I think the right thing to do for these teams is adjust each by a half point. I need some more separation in these lower level teams. The Chiefs visited the Vikings as -4 favorites and won 27-20. I am comfortable with where I have both of these teams right now so I won’t make any adjustments.

This means the Chiefs should be -12 Favorites hosting the Broncos. The actual line is -10.5, but I like my line better. If this wasn’t a Thursday I’d say this is a bet right now. Let’s lock it in as a Teaser leg and keep it as a lean for now.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans

The Ravens visited the Steelers as -2 Favorites and lost the game 17-10. I really don’t feel comfortable upgrading the Steelers based on this game. I see the Steelers like I see the Browns in the sense that the defense often bails out the office. But, I feel like the Browns have the better offense and the better defense so I’m leaving them where they are. The Ravens then need to be adjusted down and I think a half point is appropriate based on how this game played out. The Titans visited Indianapolis as +2 underdogs and lost 23-16. Because of Anthony Richardson being out I don’t want to adjust the Colts (and I don’t think Minshew is much of a downgrade if any). The Tians though I think it may be time to adjust them down a half point.

This would mean by my numbers the Titans should be +4 Underdogs at home. Awesome, it always feels good to nail a line exactly. Especially when there are QB injury concerns and the Ravens coming off of a weird game.

Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons

The Washington Commanders are coming off of extra rest after hosting Chicago as -4 favorites and losing the game 40-20. I think a point and a half of adjustment is needed here and I think the bulk of it is going to go to the Bears. They needed that game to believe in themselves again. The Falcons hosted the Texans as slight -0.5 favorites by my numbers and won the game 21-19. Seems like I don’t have to adjust either of these teams.

This would make this game a dead even pick’em by my numbers. Wow, the market right now shows the Falcons -2.5. While this surprises me I don’t want to go crazy with it yet, but I am absolutely making this my favorite teaser play.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears

It is surprising to say this so early on in the picks, but we have already adjusted both of these teams. So I can jump right to the line. My guess is Vikings -1.5 in Chicago. The market shows Vikings -3 so clearly I adjusted more than most, but I have to say… the Bears are coming into this game on extra rest and have all the confidence in the world. The Vikings just played the Chiefs and could suffer a let down here. Give me “da Bears.”

Seattle Seahawks @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Seahawks were on bye last week. The Bengals visited the Cardinals and finally got it together winning 34-20. I had them as -1.5 Favorites so I think a full point is warranted here, and with the Bengals offense finally showing some life I’m going to only adjust them up.

This means the Bengals should be -0.5 point favorites at home. The Bengals are actually -3 point favorites, but I need to hold off a bit before I make this a bet. Typically I would be quick to grab this number before it disappears, but even if it does I bet one will return before kickoff. I need to think more on this one before I bet against the Bengals in this spot. I should also note that the Bengals are coming off the bye, but I think an argument can be made that isn’t always a good thing, especially with the Bengals feeling good after finally playing a good game.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns

The 49ers hosted Dallas as -3 Favorites and dominated the game winning it 42-10. I could see either a 1.5 or 2 point adjustment based on this game. I don’t want to get crazy with the 49ers since I have them already a point better than anyone else, the Cowboys though need to be dropped. I think 0.5 point adjustment to the 49ers and 1.5 points for the Cowboys. It is a big adjustment, but laying an egg like that on Monday Night is worth that. The Browns had a bye last week.

This would mean the Cleveland Browns should be +6 point underdogs at home. The actual line is Browns +7.5. Wow, I don’t love backing the Browns here even at this number, but I need to list it as a lean to consider. I am taking the other side as a teaser though as well so I don’t want to go crazy.

Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins

The Panthers visited the Lions as +7 Underdogs and Lost 42-24. This could be a 0.5 or 1 point adjustment. I’m going to leave the Lions where they are and drop the Panthers down a half point. I feel like I should consider another half point, but I feel good about where I have both teams rated. The Dolphins hosted the Giants as -10 favorites and won 31-16. Only a half point is needed, but I can’t decide who to adjust, so I’m going to adjust them both.

These big spreads are always difficult. My numbers would make the Dolphins -11.5 point favorites. The actual line is -13.5. Since the Panthers are my worst team and I need to spread things out a bit to match the market. I’m going to adjust each another half point. I have to at least list this as a consideration, but I can’t even make betting the Panthers against the team that put up 70 points even a Lean.

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I already discussed the Colts. The Jaguars faced off against the Bills as +6 underdogs and won 25-20. I don’t want to downgrade the Bills, but I do need to raise the Jaguars. A half point makes sense.

This would make the Jaguars -4 point Favorites at home. The Actual line is exactly -4, love to see it. No bet here.

New Orleans Saints @ Houston Texans

The Saints went on the road to New England as +1 underdogs and won 34-0. This is a full two point adjustment by the numbers. I’m tempted not to drop the Patriots the full point, but I think that is just prior bias, so I’m going to trust the numbers here and make the full adjustment. I already addressed the Texans.

My line for this game is Texans +1. The actual line is Texans +1.5. I want to bet Texans +7.5 as a teaser leg, but I’m worried since the Saints just came off of a 34-0 victory.

New England Patriots @ Las Vegas Raiders

The Patriots were covered when we talked about the last game – Time to see if I downgraded them too far. The Raiders hosted the Packers on Monday night so they will be coming off of shorter rest. The Raiders were +0.5 point Underdogs and won 17-13. A half point adjustment is needed, and I think the Packers deserve it more in the opposite direction with Jordan Love struggling.

My line for this game would be Raiders -2 with these power ratings equal between the two teams. The actual line is -3 in the market so I clearly didn’t downgrade the Patriots too much. I do think the Raiders should get that half point too though. No bet in this game.

Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams

I already covered the Cardinals. The Rams hosted the Eagles as +4 point underdogs and lost 23-14. I don’t think I’m going to adjust either team, i like where they are rated right now.

I don’t feel very confident in this one, but I’m going to guess Rams -4.5. Wow, I was right not being confident, the actual line is Rams -7. I honestly agree that I need to bring these two teams further apart, so I’m going to adjust each by a half point. I think this has to be another lean, I want to trust my numbers, but betting on Arizona in this spot is hard.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets

I just covered the Eagles, and the Broncos were already taken care of with the Thursday night game. This is another one that I don’t love, but I’m going to trust my numbers and guess that this line will be Jets +5 at home. That feels like it may be too low. Yes, the line is actually +7. I don’t want to downgrade the Jets, but I will raise the Eagles a half point. I’ve been waiting for a game that would fall into the consideration category, Jets +7 is that team.

Detroit Lions @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I already covered the Lions, and the Buccaneers were on bye last week. My line for this game is Buccaneers -1. The actual line is Lions -3.5. Wow, this is my biggest miss of the year, I guess I just really have a Baker Mayfield Bias. Okay, so I have the Lions power rated a half point above the Buccaneers. Looking at this objectively I can’t get all the way to the market line in this game, but I can see that the Lions should be at least 1.5 points higher. So I will adjust each by a half point. No, another half point is needed and it is going to have to come from Tampa Bay. I still think Tampa Bay +3.5 is a bet though.

New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills

I have already addressed both of these teams. This is going to be another hard one and I haven’t had a good week (I can’t wait to see what Gill has to say about these games). I have the Bills as -13.5 favorites at home. Okay, the actual line is -14.5. I think I need to see one more game for both of these teams before I make any adjustments. No bet on this game though.

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Chargers

I already covered the Cowboys disaster, and now I can’t believe they have to play another game in prime time under the attention of the world. The Chargers are coming off a bye and ready to make a statement. I can’t wait to watch this game. I think the Cowboys should be -1.5 point favorites. The actual line is Cowboys -2.5. That isn’t enough to get me to bet on the Chargers, but I do think the teaser leg is interesting. I can’t get crazy though, the Cowboys have been known to blow teams out and I’m not confident in the Chargers.

Bets:

Chicago Bears +3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5

Seattle Seahawks +3 (Upgraded from a Lean)

Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 & Washington Commanders +8.5

San Francisco 49ers -0.5 & Philadelphia Eagles -1

Leans:

Kansas City Chiefs -10.5

Cleveland Browns +7.5

Arizona Cardinals +7.5

Houston Texans +7.5 & Los Angeles Chargers +8.5

Considerations:

New York Jets +7

Carolina Panthers +13.5