Recap from last week:

Bets:

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 -110 – Won $100

Chicago Bears +3.5 -114 – Won $100

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110 – Lost $110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 -115 – Won $100

(Teaser) Baltimore Ravens +8.5 & Seattle Seahawks +7.5 -120 – Won $100

(Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles -2 & Seattle Seahawks +7.5 -120 – Won $100

(Teaser) Chicago Bears +9.5 & Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 -120 – Won $100

Leans:

Philadelphia Eagles -8 -108 – Would have Lost $108

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 -110 – Would have Won $100

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 -110 – Would have Won $100

(Teaser) Dallas Cowboys -0.5 & Los Angeles Rams +7.5 -120 – Would have Won $100

Consider:

New York Jets +10 -110 – Would have Won $100

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 -105 – Would have Won $100

Week 5 Betting Profit: +$490 on Bets, +$192 on Leans, and $200 on Considerations. Swept nearly everything, amazing what happens when I stop actually betting games.

Total Profit : Risked $1,839 / Won $970 = +53% (Spread Bets 6-3, Teaser Legs 11-0) 

Total Profit on Leans: Risked $673 / Would have Won $292 = +43%

Total Profit: Considerations $330 / Would have won $300 = +91%

I feel like I may be due for some painful weeks ahead with this kind of a run to start the tournament.

Week 5:

The Bye weeks are here. Let’s get right into it:

Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders

The Bye Weeks have arrived. Only 4 teams on bye, but it saves me a little bit of work anyway. Let’s get into them.

The Bears hosted the Broncos and were -1 by my numbers. They lost 31-28 so typically that would likely not be an adjustment. However, they led 28-7 in this game if I recall correctly. The emotional hangover from that has to sting, but there were some bright spots. I can’t quite make a team with Justin Fields the worst team in the NFL and they are already down there close. It is also hard to upgrade the Broncos with a defense as bad as theirs has been this year. So I’m just going to leave both teams where they are. The Commanders visited Philadelphia as +10 underdogs and lost in overtime. I will adjust each team a half of a point for now.

This line should be Commanders -4.5. The market is showing -5.5 for this game which isn’t enough for me to want to back the Commanders. No bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills:

The Jaguars were -5 by my numbers hosting Atlanta. They won 23-7. A half point adjustment in both directions fits comfortably in my power ratings for this game. The Bills, wow. They hosted the Dolphins and won 48-20, by my numbers they were about -3 favorites. This is at least a full point. I’m going to downgrade Miami a half point which doesn’t feel like enough, but I think this game is more of a statement on the Bills. I don’t bet Dolphins for their defense anyway. I upgrade the Bills by a full point.

This would mean the Bills should be -7 at home hosting the Jaguars. The actual line is -5.5. I like Trevor Lawrence, but this is going to be a tough game to win. You are coming into Buffalo fresh off a 48-20 beat down of a team that put up 70 points the week before. Josh Allen is feeling good, and it is going to be tough for Lawrence to keep up. Give me the Bills. Oh, I was off because I didn’t realize this game was in London. That is important. Had I known that I would have been dead on in this handicap. This makes me like the Jaguars more since it is their second game in a row there. I don’t like my bet anymore.

Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons:

The Texans hosted the Steelers and came up with a big 30-6 victory as +2.5 underdogs. Kenny Pickett also went down in this game which raises an interesting question. I’ll start with the Texans, Stroud is looking good now a few weeks in a row. Raising them a full point feels right after such a big win. The Steelers deserve to drop at least a full point after that performance. Their offense is just stagnant. I will say I think Trubisky may actually give them a better chance to win right now. One point feels like enough. The Falcons have already been adjusted based on their game with Jacksonville.

By my numbers this line should be a pick’em. Actual line is Falcons -2. Ugh, this is a tough one because I was so much higher on the Falcons a few weeks ago. I get that there are 21 other guys on the field, but if you’re giving me Stroud vs. Ridder at this point it feels easy to take Stroud. Sometimes it is good not to over think this one, but I’ll at least put this down as a lean.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions:

The Panthers hosted the Vikings as +4 underdogs and lost 21-13. I don’t see any compelling reasons to adjust either of these teams. The Lions visited Green Bay on Thursday night. They were +1.5 underdogs and won 34-20. I’m comfortable adjusting each a half point based on this result. Normally I wouldn’t go crazy on Thursday, but it feels right here.

The Lions should be -7.5 favorites. According to the market the Lions are -9. I feel like 9 is a lot of points, but I can only list it as a consideration for now. The Lions will also have additional rest.

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts:

The Titans hosted the Bengals and won 27-3. Wow. I had them as +4 underdogs so 2 full points of adjustment are needed. Looking at my power rankings I feel good about just going a full point in each direction. I like where that puts these teams in the field. The Colts hosted the Rams as -1 favorites by my numbers. They lost in overtime, so I feel pretty good about where I have both of these teams. Actually, with both of these offenses putting up some points I’m actually going to bump each of these teams up a half point.

This would make the Colts -1 at home vs. the Titans. The actual line is -1.5 so no bet here.

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins:

The Giants hosted the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. I had the line as Giants -1.5 and they lost 24-3. I think will say a point and a half adjustment is appropriate since one of those touchdowns was a late pick 6. I will adjust the Seahawks up a half point and the Giants down a full point. That team is just lost. We covered the Dolphins already and dropped them a half point. Looking at things now I think there should be another half point based on that loss.

This will be another test on the spread of my power rankings. I say Dolphins -9. Okay, the actual line is Dolphins -11. I’m not touching this one, the Dolphins could run away with it. I also don’t think I need to adjust my power ratings, there is some overreaction in this number.

New Orleans Saints @ New England Patriots:

The Saints hosted the Buccaneers in a pick’em by my numbers. Saints lost 26-9 so a full point adjustment is perfect. I will adjust each team by a half point. The Patriots visited Dallas as 7.5 underdogs by my numbers. They lost 38-3 which is quite a different result than I would have anticipated. Dallas is really good, but how good do I want to make them? By the numbers it would be 1.5 or 2 point adjustment. The Cowboys I think can come up a full point and I would still be comfortable with their power rating. With the score being a dominate 38-3 I have to downgrade New England a full point as well.

My numbers would make this game Patriots -1.5. The actual line is Patriots -1. No bet on this game.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers:

The Ravens visited Cleveland in a pick’em game and won 28-3. This is a big statement for the Ravens. This means a point and a half of adjustment is needed. Before the season started I was high on the Ravens, so I think a full point jump was earned this weekend, will adjust the Browns down a half point. We covered the Steelers and dropped them a full point.

This game feels like it should be Ravens -3.5. Actual line is Ravens -4. I don’t see a bet here right now.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams:

I have already adjusted the Eagles down a half point for almost losing to Washington at home. The Rams have already been adjusted as well. My line then comes out to Eagles -6.5. The actual line is Eagles -4.5. This is a bet on the Eagles at this price.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals:

The Bengals have already been adjusted down a full point. I’m thinking now I need to drop it an additional half point. The Cardinals visited the 49ers as 11 point underdogs by my numbers. They lost 35-16 so a half point adjustment is needed. I will drop the Cardinals a half point, I need more space down in the lower third of my ratings.

This means the line for this game should be Bengals -5.5. The actual line is Bengals -3. This feels like an overreaction. This is a bet on the Bengals. I’m returning here to note that Gill who actually has been watching the games says Joe Burrow “can’t move” and is in shotgun every snap and can do nothing. I haven’t been adjusting them enough based on this.

New York Jets @ Denver Broncos:

The Jets hosted the Chiefs on Monday Night Football with Taylor Swift in attendance and looked great. Their defense played with (getting some hope from Patrick Mahomes), and their offense had new life with Zach Wilson looking serviceable all of a sudden. As +6.5 underdogs they lost by 3 late in the game. It was a performance worth adjusting the Jets up a half point. The Chiefs I’m going to keep where they are for now, but they are in danger of being downgraded.

The Jets should be -0.5 Favorites on the road in Denver. The actual line is Broncos -1.5. This is a bet on the Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings:

We just decided to keep the Chiefs where they were. The Vikings also have not moved since last week. This means the Chiefs should be -3 on the road. Maybe it could get higher than that? Actual line is -4, yea that makes sense and I don’t see a bet here.

Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers:

Wow this is going to be a great game on Sunday Night Football. Both teams have already been adjusted. By my numbers the 49ers should be -2.5 Favorites at home. The actual line is -3.5. I am going to bet the Cowboys +3.

Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders:

Green Bay is coming off of a tough divisional loss, but they are also on extra rest. Both teams have already been adjusted which would make the Packers -1.5 point Favorites on the road. The actual line is Packers -0.5. I will consider Packers -0.5. I could also consider Raiders +7.5 as a teaser leg though.

Bets:

Buffalo Bills -5.5 – I made this one prematurely before I knew this game was in London and they were playing the Jags who got to stay there.

Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

Bengals -3 – I should have waited on this one. Burrow can’t move and I haven’t adjusted my lines enough to account for this.

Dallas Cowboys +3.5

New York Jets +1.5

(Teaser) New York Jets +7.5 & Houston Texans +8.5

(Teaser) Miami Dolphins -5 & Houston Texans +8.5

(Teaser) Miami Dolphins -5 & New York Jets +7.5

Leans:

Houston Texans +2

Consideration:

Carolina Panthers +2

Green Bay Packers -0.5

(Teaser) Pittsburgh Steelers +10 & Las Vegas Raiders +7.5