The playoff brackets have been announced. Lets start by ranking the best teams in the playoffs based on my numbers and a few quick calculations I threw together. I’m just doing this one for a rooting interest. I’m very behind in my model and did my best to catch it up quickly with some vlookups. We will see how we can do using these rankings.

1. Atlanta Braves (884 Runs Scored / 623 Runs Allowed = 65.3% Win Percentage)
2. Houston Astros (798 Runs Scored / 640 Runs Allowed = 59.9% Win Percentage)
3. Toronto Blue Jays (717 Runs Scored / 606 Runs Allowed = 57.6% Win Percentage)
4. Texas Rangers (784 Runs Scored / 667 Runs Allowed = 57.2% Win Percentage)
5. Tampa Bay Rays (663 Runs Scored / 569 Runs Allowed = 56.9% Win Percentage)
6. Minnesota Twins (670 Runs Scored / 576 Runs Allowed = 56.8% Win Percentage)
7. Arizona Dbacks (760 Runs Scored / 655 Runs Allowed = 56.7% Win Percentage)
8. Milwaukee Brewers (699 Runs Scored / 620 Runs Allowed = 55.4% Win Percentage)
9. Philadelphia Phillies (689 Runs Scored / 624 Runs Allowed = 54.5% Win Percentage)
10. Miami Marlins (697 Runs Scored / 633 Runs Allowed = 54.3% Win Percentage)
11. Baltimore Orioles (673 Runs Scored / 619 Runs Allowed = 53.8% Win Percentage)
12. Los Angeles Dodgers (724 Runs Scored / 680 Runs Allowed = 52.8% Win Percentage)

There are obviously some flaws to these numbers, but I still think there is some value baked into these because my model is pretty good even if the weights of certain things are off which seems to be the case here. That would make sense because I just made up a lot of weights on the fly for the sake of these playoffs.

Based on the odds it looks like there is value taking all 4 underdogs in the wild card series. I can absolutely see 2 of these coming home. With any luck a few more will come through as well.

Bets:

Braves to Win the National League +150

Braves to Win the World Series +330

Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves +1800

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves +2000

Arizona Dbacks to win Wild Card Series +165

Toronto Blue Jays to win Wild Card Series +118

Toronto Blue Jays win series 2-1 +285

Miami Marlins to win Wild Card Series +165

Texas Rangers to win Wild Card Series +140