Quick review of bets, leans, and considerations for Weeks 2 and 3 as well as results:

Week 2:

Bets

Chicago Bears +3 -110 – Lost $110 – Bears Lose 27-17 to Tampa Bay

Los Angeles Chargers -3 -110 – Lost $110 – Chargers lose to Tennessee 27-24 in Overtime

Ravens +3.5 -110 – Won $100 – Ravens win 27-24 in Cincinnati

Washington Commanders +3.5 -110 – Won $100 – Commanders win 35-33 in Denver

Indianapolis Colts +1 -110 – Won $100 – Colts win 31-20 in Houston

(Teaser) Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 & San Francisco 49ers -2.5 -120 – Won $100

(Teaser) San Francisco 49ers -2.5 & Philadelphia Eagles -1 -120 – Won $100

(Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles -1 & Seattle Seahawks +12 -120 – Won $100

(Teaser) Atlanta Falcons +7.5 & Buffalo Bills -1.5 -120 – Won $100

Total Profit : Risked $1,030 / Won $480 = +47% (Spread Bets 3-2, Teaser Legs 6-0) – Great start to the NFL betting season.

Leans

Carolina Panthers +3.5 -115 – Would have won $100 – Panthers lose 20-17 to New Orleans

Seattle Seahawks +6 -110 – Would have pushed – Won by 6 in overtime at Detroit.

Total Profit: Risked $225 / Would have Won $100 = +44%

Consider:

Cardinals +4.5 -115 – Would have Won $100

Total Profit: Risked $115 / Would have won $100 = +87%

So a great start to the season. Of course I fully expected to profit from leans and considerations that I was afraid to pull the trigger on. Impressive 6-0 start on teaser legs.

Week 3:

Bets:

Miami Dolphins -6 -115 – Won $100 – Big 70-20 win against Denver

Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 -109 – Won $100 – Close 28-24 win in Minnesota

New York Jets +3 -118 – Lost $118 – This was a brutal beat, a late safety cost me the push here I heard

Seattle Seahawks -6 -105 – Won $100 – Won 37-27 against Carolina

Chicago Bears +12.5 -108 – Lost $108 – Lost 41-10 to Kansas City

(Teaser) Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 & New Orleans Saints +8 -120 – Won $100

(Teaser) Miami Dolphins Pk & Baltimore Ravens -1.5 -120 – Lost $120 – Ravens lost in overtime to the Colts

Weekly Profit: Won $54

Season Profit : Risked $1,825 / Won $534 = +29% (Spread Bets 6-4, Teaser Legs 9-1) – Great start to the NFL betting season.

Leans:

Cleveland Browns -3.5 +100 – Would have Won $100

Houston Texans +9.5 -110 – Would have Won $100 – I felt strongly that this was a tough spot for the Jaguars, I should have trusted it more.

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 -108 – Would have Lost $108

Detroit Lions -3 -115 – Would have won $100 – This one was an oversight, if I went back and looked at this before kickoff I would have bet it.

Weekly Profit: Would have Won $192

Season Profit: Total Profit: Risked $658 / Would have Won $292 = +44% (Spread Bets 4-1-1)

Considerations:

Washington Commanders +7 (If it gets there) – Would have Lost $110

Arizona Cardinals +12.5 -110 – Would have Won $100 – Won the game outright

New York Giants +10.5 -110 – Would have Lost $110

Weekly Profit: Would have Lost $120

Total Profit: Risked $445 / Would have lost $20 = -4.5% (Spread Bets: 2-2)

So far these bets have gone really well. The NFL is hard to beat so I’m expecting some negative variance. I’m not going to get arrogant about these results, I’m going to start playing more conservatively and picking my spots with a bit more care to try to keep this profitability going.