This was a wild week so I feel like this is going to start getting tougher, especially as I fall more and more out of touch with injuries. I have a lot going on right now and just trying to keep at this as much as possible so that I don’t get too behind. I’m working on some cool F1 qualifying rankings and I’m re-watching NFL condensed games to track some of my own statistics around play success rate that I think could help with my power rankings too as I start removing some luck from the equation when it comes to NFL spreads. Anyway, lets take a look at the Week 4 slate.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers:

The Lions hosted the Falcons this week and won 20 to 6. I had them as about 5 point favorites. I’m going to keep the Lions where they are and drop the Falcons a half point. The Packers hosted the Saints and won 18-17. I had them as 3.5 point favorites so no need to adjust either team here. This means the Lions are rated a half point above the Packers which would make the Packers -1.5 at home. I feel like the market may make this one closer to Pk though.

The line opened Packers -1.5, but has moved to Lions -1.5. I don’t really like either side of this game though. I don’t see myself having a bet on this game.

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

The Falcons lost 20-6 in Detroit and I already adjusted them down a half point. The Jaguars are a frustration from last week. I wrote a whole paragraph about how I thought this was a dangerous spot for them to potentially have a let down against the Texans, but I didn’t bet it and it turned out to be pretty accurate. Without having watched the game, I feel 2 points of adjustment are necessary. To make it even I will adjust the Texans up one point, and the Jaguars down one point. This would make my line for this game Jaguars -5.

Jaguars opened -4 and it has been bet down to -3. I am grabbing Jaguars -3 right away in this game, too far of an over-adjustment.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills:

Wow, what a game coming off of a historic outing against Denver where the Dolphins win it 70-20. The 50 point spread is quite a bit larger than the 7 I predicted. This is worth a 2.5 point adjustment. I’m thinking increasing the Dolphins by a point and adjusting the Broncos down a point and a half is the best way. The Bills visited Washington and won 37-3 in a game where I had them favored by 5. I should increase the Bills a point and drop the Commanders a point following this game. This makes my line for this game Bills -3.5, but after a 70 point showing lets call it -3.

The line opened Bills-3.5 and is now Bills -3. Couldn’t have gotten much closer there. No bet in this game.

Denver Broncos @ Chicago Bears:

This is a bad game. The Broncos got killed by the Dolphins in historic fashion. They don’t have a defense. I already adjusted them down a point and a half for that performance. The Bears though haven’t been much better. They lost to the Chiefs 31-10 when I had the line 8.5. I should adjust a full point here. I think it is fair to adjust each of them 0.5 point. That puts the Bears a point better than the Broncos. I don’t think they will get to the full 3 here so call it Bears -2.5.

This game opened Broncos -2.5 and moved to Broncos -3.5. This is odd, I’m clearly off here, but I’m not sure I’m that far off. I’ll adjust each a half point closer to each other (and then drop both by a half point because they are terrible). But I’m also going to Grab Bears +3.5 right away. This could be an unconventional teaser leg too, not sure how Broncos cover -9.5 without a defense.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns:

I had the Ravens favored by 9 points at home and they lost to the Colts by a field goal in overtime. Anthony Richardson was out and Minshew was in. Let’s call this a half point adjustment for each team for now. The Browns hosted the Titans and were favored by my numbers by 6.5. They ended up winning 27-3. Each team should be adjusted a half point for this result. My numbers make this game a Pick’em in Cleveland, but I can’t help but to think Ravens will end up as a small favorite.

The line opened Ravens -1.5 so the books agreed with me, but the bets have this now as Browns -2.5. I’m grabbing Ravens +2.5 now and the teaser leg. I’m being scared off of this one. Moving this to a consideration for now. I need to bump Cleveland up higher now because of their defense I think.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans:

The Bengals hosted the Rams and were favored by 8.5 by my rankings. They won the game 19-16. The rams feel too low in my rankings so I’m going to leave the Bengals where they are for now and bump up the Rams a half point. I’ve already adjusted the Titans for their loss. These larger spread games have been hard for me. My numbers show the Bengals as 5 point favorites on the road.

Wow, Bengals opened -1.5 and were bet to -2.5. I’m far enough off here that I should probably make an adjustment. But honestly I don’t want to make a big one, I still believe the Bengals are a talented team, and the Titans are really lacking at the Quarterback position. I guess they deserve to be a little higher though, but I’m going to limit this to a half point adjustment for now.

Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts:

I’ve already adjusted both of these teams and discussed their games. My numbers show Colts -1 in this game.

This game opened Rams -1.5 and moved to Colts -1.5. Based on this I don’t see any edge in the market right now. It would have been nice to look at the Colts as a dog, but I still don’t think I would have pulled the trigger. With Minshew mania likely affecting the market this could be an interesting teaser leg.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints:

Tampa Bay I had as 4 point underdogs and they lost 25-11 to the Eagles. I don’t want to adjust Tampa Bay lower so I will raise the Eagles. Since they are a great team and I know I need to stretch the range of my power rankings a bit anyway, I will raise them by a full point. The Saints I already discussed and didn’t adjust at all from last week. With this game being in New Orleans I make the line dead even. Pick’em.

Wow, the line opened Saints -3.5 and moved to Saints -3. I have to bet Buccaneers +3 here based on these numbers. I think I should also raise the saints in my rankings by a half point. We will see based on this game if I need to move them anymore.

Washington Commanders & Philadelphia Eagles:

I’ve already adjusted the Commanders down a full point and adjusted the Eagles up a full point based on last weeks performance. With the Eagles at home I make this line -11. We will see if this one is high enough for the market.

Wow, okay. It opened -7.5 and has been bet up to -8.5. I’m going to not this one down as a teaser leg and a lean against the spread. I need to adjust the Commanders up a little.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers:

the Vikings lost 28-24 hosting the Chargers. This is close to what I expected so no reason to adjust either of these teams. The Panthers lost 37-27 to Seattle. This isn’t too far off where I had them initially. I think the safest thing for me to do here is to also leave both of these teams alone. By my power rankings this line should be Vikings -4.5.

The line actually opened -3 and has been bet to -3.5. I’m going to list this as a lean for now.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans:

The Steelers were 2 point favorites on the road by my rankings and won 23-18. No need to adjust them right now. The Texans have already been adjusted. By my numbers the Steelers should be -2 point favorites on the road in Houston.

The line opened Steelers -4.5 and has been bet down to -3. Sad I didn’t get that line early, but I’m guessing this was maybe before Sunday night Football. I don’t see a bet here.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers:

No need to adjust the Raiders in the game we just reviewed. The Chargers we already decided to leave alone as well. By my numbers Chargers should be -9 at home against the Raiders.

Wow, I am really off on some of these. Chargers were -4.5 bet up to -6. I don’t like that I’m seemingly on the public side of the number. But it is hard for me not to want to take the Chargers -6. I’ll list it as a lean for now and Grab the teaser leg for sure.

New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys:

The Patriots visited the Jets as 1 point underdogs and won 15-10. I think the Jets deserved to be downgraded just with all of the negativity around the organization and pressure on Zach Wilson. I don’t think he is going to respond well. I believed in him early, but I’m losing faith. The Cowboys went into Arizona. By my numbers they were 9 point favorites, but the market had them even higher. Not only did they lose, but they lost badly 28-16. There should be a point and a half worth of adjustments. Actually, I’m only going to adjust each team by a half point. I don’t want to get crazy, this game seemed like an outlier. Cowboys should be -6.5 point favorites in this game.

The game opened -7.5 and moved to -7. This could be a Teaser possibility, but it isn’t a value bet per my numbers.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers:

I already adjusted the Cardinals. The 49ers are the last game we need to talk about I think. The 49ers hosted the Giants, by my numbers they should have been -10 point favorites. They won the game 30-12. I feel good about where I have the Giants ranked right now so I will increase the 49ers ranking. Since I am stretching out some of the better teams to widen my rankings I will go with a full point increase for the 49ers as they continue to play well. This means with the 49ers playing at home is going to be another test of the spread of my model. In fact, this should be the largest spread my power rankings are capable of. Right now that comes out 49ers -13.5. I know I have seen NFL spreads of -17 or higher in the past.

This line opened -14.5 and was bet down to -14. I’m pretty happy with that number, it makes me feel better about my power rankings right now. There will be no bet for me on this one though.

Kansas City @ New York Jets:

Both of these teams have already been adjusted. This is going to be a hard spread to make, but I’m just going to stick with my numbers which would have the Chiefs -6 on the road. I bet the actual line climbs to -7 though.

The line opened -7.5 and was bet up to -9.5. I feel like the Jets hate is too high, but I did adjust them down one more half point. I don’t want to be on the Jets in this game though. No bet here.

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants:

I decided not to move either of these teams in the power ratings this week. Giants should be +1.5 underdogs at home.

The line opened exactly what I had it, but the market bet the Giants to -1.5. I would take the Seahawks +7.5 in a Teaser leg.

Tuesday Betting Lines:

DET @ GB > -1.5 -110 / +1.5 -109

ATL @ JAC > +3.5 -114 / -3 -110

MIA @ BUF > +3 -112 / -3 -105

DEN @ CHI > -3 -118 / +3.5 -114

BAL @ CLE > +2.5 -105 / -2.5 -110

CIN @ TEN > -2.5 -110 / +2.5 -108

LAR @ IND > +1.5 -110 / -1 -110

TB @ NO > +3.5 -115 / -3 -115

WAS @ PHI > +8.5 -110 / -8 -108

MIN @ CAR > -3.5 -110 / +3.5 -106

PIT @ HOU > -3 -110 / +3 -105

LV @ LAC > +6 -110 / -5.5 -110

NE @ DAL > +7 -110 / -6.5 -115

ARI @ SF > +14 -110 / -14 -108

KC @ NYJ > -9.5 -110 / +10 -110

SEA @ NYG > +1.5 -110 / -1.5 -110

Bets:

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 -110

Chicago Bears +3.5 -114

Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 -110

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 -115

————

(Teaser) Baltimore Ravens +8.5 & Seattle Seahawks +7.5 -120

(Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles -2 & Seattle Seahawks +7.5 -120

(Teaser) Chicago Bears +9.5 & Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 -120

Leans:

Philadelphia Eagles -8 -108

Minnesota Vikings -3.5 -110

Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 -110

—————

(Teaser) Dallas Cowboys -0.5 & Los Angeles Rams +7.5 -120

Consider:

New York Jets +10 -110 – Rogue number out there, but still hard to back them.

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 -105