I was pretty hard on myself for missing out on some numbers in this race, and I do think that may be true. However, it turned out to be a blessing in a way because it made me take some chances with bets that I would have probably left as leans or considerations. And this was a pretty great race for me to say the least in terms of the bets I was able to record before the race started. Let’s take a look at those bets and how the weekend turned out.

Oscar Piastri Podium +250 – Won $250

Oscar Piastri Fastest Lap +1200 – Lost $100 – He was 5th

First Constructor to Retire during the Race – AlphaTauri +650 – Lost $100

Winning Margin between over 12 seconds -175 – Won $100

Lando Norris to Podium -182 – Won $100

Verstappen and Norris to Finish Top 2 +200 – Won $200

Lance Stroll > Vallteri Bottas -120 – Won $100 – Bottas retired before Stroll

Verstappen > Perez, Hamilton > Russell, Leclerc > Sainz +105 – Won $105

Verstappen > Perez, Hamilton > Russell, Leclerc > Sainz, Alonso > Stroll, Albon > Sargeant +182 – Won $182 – Not a lot of value in the end for a lot of retirement risk, but it worked out.

Lewis Hamilton > Carlos Sainz -105 – Won $100

Verstappen P1, Norris P2, Piastri P3 +900 – Won $900

Verstappen to win by 10+ seconds, have the fastest lap, and Red Bull Fastest Pit Stop +150 – Lost $100 – Ferrari had the fastest pit stop, I shouldn’t have added that randomness.

Driver to finish in last position Hulkenberg +300 – Lost $100

Driver to finish in last position Magnussen +450 – Won $450

Mercedes both drivers Top 6 +138 – Lost $100 – If Mercedes had listened to Russell, they may have gotten this one home. But in the end they finished P5 and P7.

Pierre Gasly Top 10 +150 – Won $150 – He finished P10

Red Bull to win race & Lewis Hamilton Top 6 -145 – Won $100

Total Japan Profit: $2,237

Total Profit: Risked $4,848 / Won $2,521= +52%

Total Profit on Leans: Would Have Risked $650 / Would Have Profited $350 = +54%

Total Profit on Considerations: Would Have Risked $405 / Would Have Lost $210 = -52%

Dream start to Formula 1 Handicapping

Let’s take a look at the race tiers and if I need to make any adjustments that I got very wrong:

Tier 1 – Max Verstappen – This is still true

Tier 2 – Lando Norris, Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez – Piastri should move up to this tier. Sainz and Perez need to prove they can hang with the Mclarens.

Tier 3 – George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri – I still like how these 4 look together.

Tier 4 – Fernando Alonso – I still feel this is accurate

Tier 5 – Lance Stroll, Alexander Albon, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly – Yes, comfortable with this.

Tier 6 – Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson – Replace Lawson with Ricciardo now, but this is accurate

Tier 7 – Logan Sargeant, Valteri Bottas, Guanyu Zhou – Yes, this still feels correct, but Sargeant could rise above if he can get his head back.

Tier 8 – Nico Hulkenburg – Yes, but he can still make noise in qualifying.

Tier 9 – Kevin Magnussen – Yes