Short turnaround from Singapore to Japan and I am absolutely behind in my handicapping. Practices are completed and qualifying takes place tonight. I noted last week that I shouldn’t let the numbers dictate who I like. So I’m going to start by discussing team by team and then I’ll list my top 20 heading into Japan. We will then see what bets best match what I expect to happen in this race. Japan seems to be a popular track for the drivers with a lot of history. It performs like Silverstone and is expected to favor Red Bull. However, Mclaren is coming with more upgrades (for Piastri to match Norris). Mercedes expects to struggle over a single lap, but will be confident come Sunday. And we haven’t even mentioned Ferrari who are coming off their first GP win of the season. There is a lot going on here, so my rule going in is that I’m going to try not to get too crazy.

Red Bull – It is going to take a serious price to get me to bet on anyone other than Verstappen to win. Norris would be the only other candidate. He seems confident and after losing his streak last week he will have a lot to prove. A dominant weekend wouldn’t surprise me. Perez will need a good going as well, but I don’t see him finishing ahead of Norris. Verstappen, Perez, Norris podium is possibility. This is a circuit for everything Red Bull is good at.

Mclaren – We will see this week what these cars are made of. So far in practice Norris has looked good, but there has been a Ferrari between him and the leader each time. Piastri has struggled more than expected, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him perform well on race day.

Mercedes – They will struggle over a single lap here, but will be confident come Sunday in the race. George has outperformed Lewis in every race and qualifying session since the summer break so look for him to bounce back and challenge for a podium after a very disappointing finish in Singapore that turned a podium into a DNF. Lewis said he will not be winning this race.

Ferrari – I never know what to do with them week to week, but I’m not going to lose money fading them at this point. If I can get a good price on them to podium I think that would be worth it. Sainz is the better driver right now, but I would still take Leclerc in the race at a decent price. Reports are that tire degradation is higher than normal so far in practice which may hurt Ferrari.

Aston Martin – Fernando Alonso is still confident, but they haven’t actually been in the fight for a while. I have to watch his ability to spoil the T6, but I don’t expect him to fight for a podium. Lance Stroll has really struggled as of late and may have good value in the market for a bounce back.

Williams – Albon at this point in the season feels comfortably ahead of Alpine. Logan Sargeant is fighting for his life and his 2024 seat in the back of the pack. With Liam Lawson driving well and looking for a seat his time in F1 could be limited. But we know what the car can do, so with his struggles in 2023 there may be some opportunities to back Sargeant throughout the rest of this season. Albon looks like he could compete for points in this race. Sargeant I would target in head to heads vs. Haas or Alfa Romeo only.

Alpine – I need to get away from my propensity to bet Gasly for a while. This team just seems to settle somewhere in the middle and doesn’t do much else. Hard to even know what to say about them in this case. They are in this area solidly, relatively consistent, but I rarely feel good having my money on them.

AlfaTauri – Lawson is driving for his life and his seat so watch for him to do well, but he could also end up pushing things too far. I’m not sure what to do with Yuki, he has been struggling lately, but odds can’t get too high on him or I will end up having something on him. The car has looked good recently.

Alpha Romeo – Keep an eye out for them, word is they have upgrades coming between now and Vegas, but people don’t seem too excited about them. Bottas has seemed like the better driver of late and has more experience so that makes sense.

Haas – Hulkenburg can still turn heads in qualifying now and then, but they are just never on pace when it comes to race day. Magnussen is still the last in the field for me in most races and he definitely will be here because it seems common knowledge that this will be the worst race of the year for them.

Japan Race Tiers:

Tier 1 – Max Verstappen

Tier 2 – Lando Norris, Carlos Sainz, Sergio Perez

Tier 3 – George Russell, Lewis Hamilton, Charles Leclerc, Oscar Piastri

Tier 4 – Fernando Alonso

Tier 5 – Lance Stroll, Alexander Albon, Esteban Ocon, Pierre Gasly

Tier 6 – Yuki Tsunoda, Liam Lawson

Tier 7 – Logan Sargeant, Valteri Bottas, Guanyu Zhou

Tier 8 – Nico Hulkenburg

Tier 9 – Kevin Magnussen

Japan Betting Lines:

I’m pretty gutted that I missed the lines before Free Practice 3 because I could have gotten Mclaren at far better prices. I’m never going to have success at this if I keep missing opportunities for the best prices, but I did it again. I’m not even going to bother listing the lines, I missed the best of them. I guess I’ll just see if there is anything left worth betting and watch more me miss out on more profit because I just can’t seem to keep up with stuff.

Japan Pre-Qualifying Wagers:

Oscar Piastri Podium +250 – If he edges out Perez in qualifying this is in play. – Moved to +125 after qualifying

Oscar Piastri Fastest Lap +1200 – In case he is in the 4-6 position with DRS at the end of the race, he could pull it off. – Moved to +1000 after qualifying

First Constructor to Retire during the Race – AlphaTauri +650 – Lawson has a lot to prove and Yuki has made a history of not finishing lately. – Now +700

Winning Margin between over 12 seconds -175 – I could see Lando and Piastri not even worried about the Verstappen fight, he could get away:

Starting Grid (Prediction):

1. Max Verstappen (P1)
2. Oscar Piastri (P3)
3. Lando Norris (P2)
4. Charles Leclerc (P5)
5. Sergio Perez (P4)
6. Carlos Sainz (P8)
7. Lewis Hamilton (P6)
8. George Russell (P7)
9. Yuki Tsunoda (P10)
10. Fernando Alonso (P9)
11. Liam Lawson (P13)
12. Pierre Gasly (P12)
13. Alexander Albon (P11)
14. Esteban Ocon (P14)
15. Kevin Magnussen (P20)
16. Valtteri Bottas (P16)
17. Lance Stroll (P15)
18. Nico Hulkenburg (P18)
19. Zhou Guanyu (P17)
20. Logan Sargeant (P19)

Japan Post Qualifying Betting:

Lando Norris to Podium -182

Verstappen and Norris to Finish Top 2 +200

Lance Stroll > Vallteri Bottas -120

Verstappen > Perez, Hamilton > Russell, Leclerc > Sainz +105

Verstappen > Perez, Hamilton > Russell, Leclerc > Sainz, Alonso > Stroll, Albon > Sargeant +182

Lewis Hamilton > Carlos Sainz -105

Verstappen P1, Norris P2, Piastri P3 +900

Verstappen to win by 10+ seconds, have the fastest lap, and Red Bull Fastest Pit Stop +150

Driver to finish in last position Hulkenberg +300

Driver to finish in last position Magnussen +450

Mercedes both drivers Top 6 +138

Pierre Gasly Top 10 +150

Red Bull to win race & Lewis Hamilton Top 6 -145

Overall it wasn’t my best work in terms of preparation since I didn’t even re-watch the last race or chart the qualifying yet. I will do far more before the next race and will have full qualifying pace data and more opinions on all of the cars heading into the final races of the year.