I’m going to keep things pretty brief this week because I’m working on other things behind the scenes. Eventually, I’m going to dive deeper into pro football focus playing ratings and really start understanding the rosters of each team so that I can better adjust from week to week. Additionally, I’m in the process of going through and watching condensed game replays to keep track of some statistics I haven’t been able to find anywhere else. More on that later, but for now I’m just going to take a look at final scores and adjust my power rankings accordingly. In watching game replays I’m working to take some of the randomness out of the scoring which may cause some adjustments to some of these lines. I’m also not completely up to date on injuries outside of Nick Chubb so there won’t be any adjustments for that either. This will give me a chance to go back to these later and adjust as I see fit and research why some of the lines may be off of what I was expecting. This will be a good starting point though until I get caught up with some of these other efforts. So with that said, let’s preview week 3.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers:

The Giants went into Arizona last week and won 31-28. This is pretty close to where I had them rated so I don’t feel the need to adjust their power rankings at all for now. I thought they may put a hurting on Arizona and make a case to be ranked higher, but I didn’t see that. The 49ers went to LA to face the Rams and won 30-23. Again, I feel good about where I have them ranked right now and won’t make any adjustments. I have the 49ers rated 7.5 points higher than the Giants which puts this number close to 10, but I think betters would take the 10 if it is offered to them so this feels like a line of -9.5.

The actual line opened at -10 and was immediately bet down to -9.5. Wow, this exercise is giving me some confidence in my ratings. No bet here.

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns:

The Titans hosted the Chargers and won 27-24 in overtime. I saw this line as around +5.5 for the Titans so this was a big win for them and one that I will reward with a half of a point in their ratings. Having a strong running game helps them stay in games they have no business being in which warrants an adjustment. The Browns visited Pittsburgh and lost 26-22 on the road. Nick Chubb went down with a serious leg injury and I feel like he may be one of the more important running backs to his team in the NFL. Still, that would only be worth about a point or a point and a half to their power ratings. In this case since they lost to a Pittsburgh team that still wasn’t playing like they really wanted to win, I’m going to downgrade them by a 1.5. This puts the Browns 4 points ahead of the Titans in the power rankings. It is hard to imagine the line getting too high for Cleveland given the injury so let’s call this line -5 for now.

Yea, I’m not surprised to see this line bet from -4.5 down to -3 as the line did feel too high. The good news is I nailed the adjustment of 1.5 for Cleveland after the injury. Now, I just need to decide if I’d rather bet on Cleveland -3 or adjust the Titans up further in the rankings. Given the fact I already upgraded Tennessee slightly I think there is value here on Cleveland -3. I’m not going to get crazy with this yet though because I feel like this line will stick around. For now this is a lean.

Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions:

The Falcons hosted the Packers this week and won 25-24. I expected the Falcons to lose by 2, so no real adjustment needed to these rankings. Atlanta has some great new skill players that make me want to consider bumping them a half of a point, but considering that would put them a half a point higher than the Giants in my power rankings I just can’t do that, because I would pick the Giants over Atlanta in a neutral field game. I’m not going to adjust them down just yet, but as soon as I’m given one reason that is what I’m going to do. Maybe they will prove me wrong. The Lions hosted the Seahawks and lost 37-31. The Lions should have been favored by about 4.5 in this game and this is a bad loss. Giving up 37 to the Seahawks is just not something you can do. I’m going to give the Seahawks credit though and only adjust them down a half of a point for now. This places the Lions 4 points ahead of the Falcons which means they should be favored by about 5.5 in this game.

The actual line opened Lions -5.5 and was bet down to -3. It looks like the Lions have a few key injuries driving the line movement so my power rankings are pretty close. The market adjusted the line 2.5 points. This feels like too many points given the nature of the injuries. I will adjust the Lions down 1 point for now based on losing Gardner-Johnson and their Left Tackle. We can adjust things from there as we check out the skill level of the backups. I’m not confident enough to bet either team here, but I would absolutely consider Lions -3 with more research.

New Orleans Saints @ Green Bay Packers:

The Saints were on the road at Carolina on Monday night and won 20-17. I had this as a pretty even game with the Saints favored slightly. I need to remember that they are getting Kamara back after 4 weeks I believe, but for right now I don’t see a reason yet to adjust their power rankings. The Packers we covered already with their loss to the Falcons. No need to adjust them either. With the Packers 3.5 points higher than the Saints in the rankings I would expect this line to be about -5 or -5.5. This feels too high, we will see if the market agrees with me and if we should re-evaluate either one of these teams.

Wow, I wouldn’t have been surprised with Packers -3, but according to this they opened -2.5 and were bet down to -2. I’m too far off of the market here that I have to be wrong about something. I’m 3 points or more off so a full adjustment would be 1.5 each since I don’t have a preference really for which team to adjust more until I do some more research on injuries. I don’t want to go the full 3 points, but for now I can look at the rankings and feel completely fine upgrading the Saints one point and downgrading the Packers by 1 point.

Denver Broncos @ Miami Dolphins:

The Broncos hosted the Commanders and lost 35-33. Immediately, I’m surprised to see Denver even put up 33 points, but even more surprised that once again their defensive appears to have let them down in a bit way. A big part of their power rankings right now is based on their defense. I can already tell this is going to be a difficult team for me all season. I have the Commanders ranked a half point higher so luckily no reason to really mess with this ranking right now. The Dolphins went into New England and took down the Patriots 24-17 as 2 point favorites. I really do like the Dolphins, but an upgrade gets them too close to the Ravens and the Chargers so I have to leave them alone right now as well. With no changes the Dolphins are ranked 5 points higher than the Broncos so I would expect the line to be -7. I think with the Broncos giving up so many points lately it will get to the full 7 points here. This is the last change Denver has at proving they have any sort of a defense this season.

The actual line was bet up from Dolphins -5.5 to -6.5 so pretty close to the 7. I bet a 7 will appear at some point, I better consider taking this one now.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Minnesota Vikings:

The Chargers lost on the road to the Titans 27-24 in overtime. I upgraded the Titans already so no need to adjust the Chargers. The Vikings lost 34-28 in Philadelphia which is about exactly what I would have them right now. With the Vikings at home the line should be under Chargers -3. I will Guess Chargers -1.5 on the road.

Wow, the line opened Chargers -2 but has moved to Vikings -1.5. I assume that move is based on Ekeler, but that is a lot of points. The numbers aren’t that far apart in this ranger, but if I can get Justin Herbert as an underdog against the Vikings I’m making that bet every time.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets:

The Patriots lost 24-17 to the Dolphins at home. I’ve decided not to adjust the Dolphins so I think I have to adjust the Patriots here and drop them by a half of a point. The Jets lost 30-10 on the road in Dallas. I had the Cowboys as 7 point favorites in that game so I have to make some adjustments. Without having watched the game yet, I can say that I’m not comfortable moving the Cowboys up any higher than they already are. That means the Jets have to come down and I think the right adjustment to make is a full point. The Patriots are now a half of a point above the Jets in my power ratings, this game feels like it should be a pick or Jets -0.5.

Wow, the actual line is Patriots -2 and it has moved to Patriots -2.5. This is an overreaction. Yes, Zach Wilson is bad, but he has become the popular person to hate lately so the perception has to be that he is worse than he actually is. It wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him show some life. And the Jets have 21 other players and a lot of them are very talented too. This team just still feels too good to be 2.5 point underdogs in this game.

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Commanders:

The Bills were at home this week and beat the Raiders 38-10. They are who we thought they were. I’m not going to go crazy here, they didn’t win the super bowl, but I will upgrade them a half a point which puts them right with the elite teams of the NFL. The Commanders won 35-33 on the road in Denver. No need to adjust their power ranking at all. The Bills are 6.5 points better than the Commanders by my numbers. I would expect this game to be Bills-5.

The actual line is Bills -6 bet up to -6.5. The only thing to do here is wait to see if this gets to +7 and grab it. So for now this is a consideration.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars:

The Texans were at home and lost 31-20 to the Colts. I’m going to make the adjustment on the Colts here and leave the Texans where they are. The Jaguars are coming off of a big game at home against Kansas City. Before I even get into that game though, it is worth getting into a discussion on trends and angles. You won’t read about many of them on this page. Do trends exist? Sure, sometimes. However, it is so difficult to understand what the right sample size is on something before it is even worth considering. Even then, there has to be some sort of explanation for it that I can think of for me to really buy into it. The same is true for angles (by that I mean something closer to “emotional handicapping.”) The classic example is trying to figure out who is motivated and who isn’t in college bowl games. But the reason I bring this up here is that if there ever was a spot I would consider something like this in the NFL, it would be this game (and the classic examples around divisional matchups). Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are working to prove their relevancy. They had a fight with the Chiefs and lost out. That had to have been a very emotional game at home. Luckily they are at home again here, which to me could make this be an even bigger of a letdown spot. After such a high profile matchup, now they get the chance to face maybe the worst team of the past 3 seasons in their stadium makes it dangerous to back anyone but the Texans in this game when it comes to any sort of emotional handicap you may or not buy into. Typically, I’m not one to buy into this sort of thing often, but I just get that feeling about this game. With that said, the 17-9 loss to the Chiefs didn’t tell us much. If anything both teams should maybe be downgraded, but I can’t justify that either. So I’m leaving the Jags where they are. That was a lot of talk, no need for anymore. I make this game Jaguars -8.5.

The game opened -7.5 and is now -9.5 so it went right through my number. My whole discussion about the letdown spot has to make the Texans at least a Lean.

Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens:

The Colts won 31-20 on the road in Houston. I didn’t lower the Texans so I have to increase the Colts. I am really high on Anthony Richardson so my knee jerk reaction was to raise the Colts one point, but I think I’m showing some bias there based on how much I like him as a player. I will raise the Colts by a half point. The Ravens won 27-24 in Cincinnati. It is hard to know what to make of this game with how the Bengals performed in week 1. I think the safest thing to do is to leave the Ravens where they are. Where they are right now is 7 points higher than the Colts. With the Ravens being at home my line would be Ravens -9.

The actual line is Ravens -8.5 bet down to -7.5. This line won’t move too much in either direction, I lean Ravens here. It just feels like they can do everything the Colts can do, but better.

Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks:

The Panthers lost 20-17 at home to the Saints. We covered that game, no need to make any adjustments. The Seahawks won 37-31 on the road in Detroit. I’ve already downgraded Detroit by a half of a point. I have to also reward the Seahawks with a half of a point here. This was a big win. This leaves the Seahawks 5 points ahead of the Panthers making them -7 point favorites.

Wow, the Seahawks opened as -4.5 point favorites and it has been bet up to -5.5. I’m going to bet the Seahawks now before this gets any higher.

Chicago Bears @ Kansas City Chiefs:

The Bears were on the road in Tampa Bay and lost 27-17. Justin Fields did not look good in this game. For that alone I think a half point downgrade here is fair. The Chiefs won 17-9 on the road in Jacksonville. The game was too ugly for me to upgrade them for the win. I don’t see any room to downgrade them either. It was a tough game I’m going to leave both teams where they are. This places the Chiefs 5.5 points above the Bears. My numbers would have the Chiefs -7.5, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see it get higher than that.

Okay, I lied. I’m surprised. This says the Chiefs opened -11.5 and have been bet up to -12.5. It is the kind of edge that makes you feel crazy, but you just have to bet it. I decided to lower the Bears another half point based on this spread, but prove to me they are that bad before I adjust this any lower.

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals:

Well, I guess we will see how good the spread of my rankings are with two teams very far apart in my rankings. The Cowboys won 30-10 at home against the Jets. I already said I wasn’t going to upgrade them any further, I adjusted the Jets down instead. The Cardinals lost 31-28 to the Giants. Honestly the worst team in the NFL shouldn’t be able to put up 28 points. I will upgrade the cardinals a half point for this game. They will still be the worst, but I have to adjust a little bit. This puts the Cowboys 10 points above the Cardinals which would mean they would be favored by -8.5 points here. I already know that isn’t going to be enough, but let’s see what the market has to say.

The opening line was Dallas -10.5 but it has been bet up to -12.5. The Cowboys have already shown the ability to run up the score so I don’t see myself with a bet on this game. I have such a edge by my numbers that I’ll list this as a consideration, but it won’t raise any higher than that unless I get some serious support from other bettors I respect. With that said, assuming the Cowboys are a half point worse than the best teams in the NFL, then the market has an spread of 40.5 to 26.5 (or 30.5 to 44.5) so we have room to grow these out as teams start to spread themselves out throughout the year in preparation for 2024.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Oakland Raiders:

The Steelers won at home against the Browns, but it didn’t bring much joy to Pittsburgh. There is potential here, though. Still I think the best thing to do here is to leave them where they are. The Raiders lost 38-10 to the Bills. We can make this easy. The game adjustment should be a point and a half and I already adjusted the Bills a half of a point. So I will downgrade the Raiders by one full point. That places the Steelers 4 points better on the road. Let’s give Vegas some credit and call this game Steelers -2.

Wow, the game opened Steelers -1.5, but was bet to Raiders -2.5. I like the Steelers in this matchup, but they are most valuable here as a teaser.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

The Eagles won 34-28 at home and we already determined when we talked about the Vikings that this game didn’t need any adjustments. The Buccaneers won 27-10 at home against the Bears. The Bears were downgraded a half point, but the Buccaneers also deserve an upgrade the way they have been playing. This puts the Eagles 5 points ahead of the Buccaneers on the road. Let’s say Eagles -3.5 on the road.

The actual line is Eagles -4.5. The Eagles looked great in the first half and I do think they are one of the deepest teams in the NFL. For this reason I’m going to upgrade them a half of a point. I’m not even going to make this a consideration though, I can’t be on Baker Mayfield vs. the Eagles. Not yet.

Los Angeles Rams @ Cincinnati Bengals:

The Rams lost 30 to 23 at home against the 49ers. That score doesn’t warrant an adjustment. The Bengals looked much better, but still fell to the visiting Ravens 27-24. The best thing to do with the Bengals right now is to just leave them right where they are. Where they are is 6.5 points above the Rams. With their struggles I don’t see the Bengals getting above -7, but it has to get there at least. I hear Joe Burrow may not go for the Bengals. He has to be worth a ton to this team normally, but he hasn’t really been playing the best. Say he is worth 5.5 points on a good day, downgrade that a bit and we will call this Bengals -3 without Joe Burrow.

Checking the Market, I am close. The line moved from -6.5 to -2.5 so just a half a point below my numbers. I don’t see a bet to be made here.

Let’s check the actual books rather than the aggregate site and see what is available:

NYG @ SF > +10.5 -110 / -10 -110

TEN @ CLE > +3.5 -110 / -3.5 +100

ATL @ DET > +3.5 -110 / -3 -115

NO @ GB > +2 -110 / -2 -110

DEN @ MIA > +6.5 -110 / -6 -115

LAC @ MIN > +0.5 -109 / +1.5 -120

NE @ NYJ > -2.5 -115 / +3 -118

BUF @ WAS > -6.5 -110 / +6.5 -108

HOU @ JAC > +9.5 -110 / -8.5 -110

IND @ BAL > +7.5 +100 / -7.5 -108

CAR @ SEA > +6 -108 / -6 -105

CHI @ KC > +12.5 -108 / -12 -110

DAL @ ARI > -11.5 -110 / +12.5 -110

PIT @ OAK > +2.5 -110 / -2.5 -110

PHI @ TB > -4.5 -108 / +5 -110

LAR @ CIN > +2.5 -105 / -2.5 -110

Bets:

Miami Dolphins -6 -115

Los Angeles Chargers +0.5 -109

New York Jets +3 -118

Seattle Seahawks -6 -105

Chicago Bears +12.5 -108

(Teaser) Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 & New Orleans Saints +8 -120

(Teaser) Miami Dolphins Pk & Baltimore Ravens -1.5 -120

Leans:

Cleveland Browns -3.5 +100

Houston Texans +9.5 -110

Baltimore Ravens -7.5 -108

Considerations:

Detroit Lions -3 -115

Washington Commanders +7 (If it gets there)

Arizona Cardinals +12.5 -110

New York Giants +10.5 -110