I will be adding more to this over the next couple of days, but let’s get started by grading all of the wagers, leans, and considerations.
Graded Wagers:
Verstappen and Norris to Finish in the Top 2 of Free Practice 1 +800 – Lost $100
Driver besides Red Bull to win qualifying +160 – Won $160
Lando Norris > Oscar Piastri in Qualifying -250 – Won $100
Yuki Tsunoda > Liam Lawson in Qualifying -286 – Lost $286 – Yuki didn’t get a lap in during Q2, that’s the risk.
George Russell to Podium +450 – Lost $100 – This was as brutal as it gets. Huge value and we were about to cash when Russell crashed into the wall in the final corners of the race.
Lance Stroll Top 10 -105 – Push – Stroll Did Not Start the Race which was ultimately lucky for us as this bet would have lost.
Zhou Guanyu Top 10 +650 – Lost $100
Charles Leclerc +275 Podium in Race – Lost $100 – With Sainz winning the race I still think this was a good bet despite the loss.
Verstappen and Norris to finish Top 3 +200 – Lost $100 – I should have gotten a better price on this, but at the time I made it I still think it was a good handicap.
Yuki Tsunoda > Liam Lawson -250 – Lost $250 – Tsunoda retires his car on Lap 1 or 2 with a puncture for some reason. I’m not going to claim luck here though because it would have been tough for him to pass Lawson anyway given where he was starting the race. Lawson had a great race and this would have been a loss no matter what.
Lando Norris > Oscar Piastri -275 – Won $100 – This felt like a steal.
Alfa Romeo > AlphaTauri +105 – Lost $100 – Liam Lawson of all people spoiled this one which I didn’t see coming.
Driver to finish last of all classified drivers – Sargeant +450 – Lost $100 – Fernando Alonso’s unlucky bad pit stop ruined this one for me.
Pierre Gasly > Alexander Albon +110 – Won $110
Guanyu Zhou > Liam Lawson +100 – Lost $100
Nico Hulkenberg > Logan Sargeant +100 – Won $100
Winning Margin Under 5 seconds +280 – Won $280
Winning Margin Between 5 and 10 seconds +300 – Lost $100
Max Verstappen to win race and Lando Norris to Finish on Podium +320 – Lost $100
Gasly to be the highest finishing car that isn’t a Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Aston Martin, or Red Bull +250 – Won $250
Lewis Hamilton +430 fastest lap – Won $430 – Great hit here at the end, but it would have been nicer had I grabbed that +1100 earlier. Noted in Leans.
Lando Norris to Podium +140 – Won $140
Pierre Gasly Top 10 +150 – Won $150
Total Profit: Risked $2,966 / Won $284= +9.6% – This is right around the percentage I would love to hit every race. Sure, it sucks to have missed out on another potential $843 if some more luck when our way, but given the wild nature of this race there likely aren’t many that returned a profit on this race. I’m glad to report one in my first Grand Prix with this blog.
Luck Swings Due to Retirements, etc. : -$843 – Thanks to Russell’s crash on the last lap and Alonso’s long pit stops I lost out on two +450 tickets. I also counted half of my Tsunoda > Lawson in qualifying swing as unlucky since Tsunoda was not able to get a lap in in Q2. He would have had at least a 50% chance of beating out Lawson which would have set him up better to cash the -250 ticket in the race. However, given Tusnoda’s retirement I am not counting any of that bet against this luck swing score. I did get lucky that Stroll didn’t start the race causing a push, and that Ocon recorded a DNF allowing my Gasly bet to cash so those swings I also included in this score.
Graded Leans:
Lando Norris to Win Qualifying +1400 – Would have Lost $100
Max Verstappen to Win -350 – Would have Lost $350
Lewis Hamilton Hits the Fastest Lap bet and I profited $430, but I had a lean at +1100 – Would have Won $670 More
Kevin Magnussen > Nico Hulkenberg +130 – Would have won $130
Total Profit on Leans: Would Have Risked $650 / Would Have Profited $350 = +54% – Don’t take this as evidence yet to be overly aggressive early. I still should use caution.
Grading Considerations:
Lando Norris to Podium Dropped from +180 to Plus +140 so betting it as I consideration – Would have won $40 More
Pierre Gasly Top 10 Increased from -105 to +150 so betting it as a consideration – Would have won $50 Less
Verstappen and Perez Top 2 +150 – Would have Lost $100
Verstappen, Perez, Norris in order of finish +700 – Would have Lost $100
Total Profit on Considerations: Would Have Risked $405 / Would Have Lost $210 = -52%
Driver by Driver Notes and Adjustments:
Max Verstappen – His car was shockingly bad even according to other drivers. The fact that he still brought home a top 6 is a testament to how good he is as a driver.
Sergio Perez – Perez also had car issues. He did okay.
Lewis Hamilton – He was behind Russell and got lucky on the odium, but Mercedes did a nice job for the most part.
George Russell – Heartbreaking to see him going into the wall with only a few turns left.
Charles Leclerc – If we learned anything about Leclerc this race it was that he is definitely not being treated as any sort of a lead driver. He was called a sacrificial lamb by other drivers for how he was backing himself up into the field to benefit Sainz. It could also be reason to bet him in the next race. Ferrari may owe him some favors after this one.
Carlos Sainz – A victory. Not much else to say here. Ferrari got it right for once on a track I didn’t expect them to contend at. I feel like I should elevate Ferrari, but I think I may just need to be more careful with them for now. Hamilton, Russell, Norris, Sainz, Leclerc, are all right around the same level it varies track to track. It surprises me that Ferrari won this race, but I think it makes sense given the change in track that I was not immediately aware of. Those changes helped Ferrari a lot in terms of speed advantage and tire degredation being lower.
Lando Norris – He had a great race. I’m glad I’m not kicking myself right now for not taking him to win at a big price because I almost did and he almost did.
Oscar Piastri – Piastri is getting upgrades next week that Lando had this week, so look for value betting him early.
Fernando Alonso – A slow pit stop hurt him, it would have been interesting to see what he was able to do at the front. Full disclosure, I need to go back to look closer at his race. He said earlier in the weekend he thought he could end up as high as 2nd place so he must feel good about the car at this track.
Lance Stroll – He didn’t start after the crash in qualifying.
Esteban Ocon – Ocon having issues and not finishing the race really helped me. I need to watch fading him until I see more.
Pierre Gasly – He made a lot of money for me, but only because Ocon didn’t finish.
Alexander Albon – He is doing amazing things in this car. He had no business being in the fight for points at all, but he was right there in the end.
Logan Sargeant – He struggled as was expected.
Yuki Tsunoda – Yuki got a puncture on the first lap and retired the car. Commentators felt that he should have tried to get around. I would have lost my bets on him anyway.
Liam Lawson – Liam looked great. I guess I have to be more careful laying prices against him in the future.
Valtteri Bottas – Did not finish the race.
Zhou Guanyu – He should have been able to give Lawson, Magnussen, and Albon more of a fight. I can’t be high on Alfa Romeo.
Nico Hulkenberg – Compared to his teammate he did not have a good race at all.
Kevin Magnussen – He clearly really loves this track. I should have taken a shot at him on a top 10, but the price didn’t seem to be worth it.
- George Russell (DNF)
- Lando Norris (P2)
- Lewis Hamilton (P3)
- Max Verstappen (P5)
- Carlos Sainz (P1)
- Charles Leclerc (P4)
- Sergio Perez (P8)
- Fernando Alonso (P15)
- Esteban Ocon (DNF)
- Pierre Gasly (P6)
- Oscar Piastri (P7)
- Yuki Tsunoda (DNF)
- Lance Stroll (DNS)
- Kevin Magnussen (P10)
- Nico Hulkenburg (P13)
- Valtteri Bottas (DNF)
- Liam Lawson (P9)
- Alexander Albon (P11)
- Zhou Guanyu (P12)
- Logan Sargeant (P14)
Overall I undervalued Ferrari here, but it sounds like the commentators did as well. The frustrating part of it is that I could have caught this if I knew about the 4 corners that were taken out. Another frustrating thing is that I could have maybe gotten better prices on the Non-Ferrari bets if I waited until after practice. Actually, that likely isn’t the case because of people not expecting Red Bull to struggle the way they did.
JARED BETS 
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