The weekend has already been an eventful one with Ferrari surprisingly dominating the early practice sessions and Red Bulls sending both cars out in Q2. Let’s see where that leaves me with the wagers I’ve already recorded and see if we can squeeze any more value out of the market before the start of the Grand Prix on Sunday. It turns out I didn’t have as much time before the race as I thought and a lot of these bets fell off so I couldn’t compare lines or do much additional shopping around. However, glancing at the lines in one book I don’t think I would have ended up making more wagers. I like Mercedes to win the race, but Lando Norris could also win, and while I expect Ferrari to struggle with tire degradation they will be hard to pass on this circuit. This is a tough race to predict right now with so many drivers and teams close on pace in qualifying. This could be one of the best races of the year.

I made some very quick predictions at the end of this article in terms of all 20 drivers and their finishing value based on what I expect to see in this race. We will analyze these bets and this race predictions in depth in the Post-Race write-up.

Where to watch:

Singapore GP – ESPN – 8:00 AM Eastern Time

Graded Wagers:

Verstappen and Norris to Finish in the Top 2 of Free Practice 1 +800 – Lost $100

Driver besides Red Bull to win qualifying +160 – Won $160

Lando Norris > Oscar Piastri in Qualifying -250 – Won $100

Yuki Tsunoda > Liam Lawson in Qualifying -286 – Lost $286 – Yuki didn’t get a lap in during Q2, that’s the risk.

Graded Leans:

Lando Norris to Win Qualifying +1400 – Would have Lost $100

Current Portfolio for the GP:

George Russell to Podium +450 – Now -190 – Ferrari had me a little worried until I actually watched the practice sessions. Some serious value on this bet now.

Lance Stroll Top 10 -105 – Now +450 – I moved this bet up from a consideration, and with his bad crash in Q1 this one is now likely dead unless something crazy happens.

Zhou Guanyu Top 10 +650 – Now +1000 – I need to be careful betting prices that are good relative to other drivers and bet good prices relative to actual win equity. Don’t love this one.

Charles Leclerc +275 Podium in Race – Now +100 – Glad I grabbed a piece of Ferrari. I wouldn’t bet this at +100, but some nice CLV (Closing Line Value) on this one.

Verstappen and Norris to finish Top 3 +200 – Now +2500 – Verstappen has a long way to go here and his car has problems. This one is dead. I liked the bet, but not good value.

Yuki Tsunoda > Liam Lawson -250 – Now +100 – Yuki had a bad crash during Q1 and is starting 5 places back of Lawson, but two of the cars in between are Red Bulls. Yuki will need to get by Albon, Gasly, then Lawson to win this bet. Hopefully we can get bailed out of this one. Lawson has a lot of laps on a tough track to stay clean as well. This one isn’t quite dead yet.

Lando Norris > Oscar Piastri -275 – Now -800 – This is closer to where I would have expected the price Pre-qualifying (more like -500 or so)

Alfa Romeo > AlphaTauri +105 – This one is love, but I don’t feel great about it.

Driver to finish last of all classified drivers – Sargeant +450

Pierre Gasly > Alexander Albon +110 – Now -200 – Good Value here

Guanyu Zhou > Liam Lawson +100 – This one is pretty much dead unless Lawson doesn’t finish the race.

Nico Hulkenberg > Logan Sargeant +100 – Huge advantage here now.

Winning Margin Under 5 seconds +280 – I like this bet more now with Verstappen in the back.

Winning Margin Between 5 and 10 seconds +300 – With Verstappen in the back, this hedge may not even have been needed.

Max Verstappen to win race and Lando Norris to Finish on Podium +320

Gasly to be the highest finishing car that isn’t a Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Aston Martin, or Red Bull +250 – Now +850 – I have a chance here still I think, not a good one.

Lewis Hamilton +430 – I had this bet as a lean at +1100 so it hurts to make it now, but I still think there is good value here so I’m going to make it.

Lando Norris to Podium +140 – I waited until practice to grab this one and it dropped from +180 to +140, but I still thought it was a good price.

Pierre Gasly Top 10 +150 – This was a consideration at -105 so at +150 I am upgrading it to a bet. I haven’t seen much to change my mind.

Lean:

Max Verstappen to Win -350 – Now +450 – Tempting, but he has too far to go and it is a street circuit. Honestly shocked this number isn’t way higher.

I lost out on Lewis Hamilton Fastest Lap from +1100 down to +430 by waiting for after practice.

Kevin Magnussen > Nico Hulkenberg +130 – Now -175 – Yea, I should have gotten a piece of Magnussen. I had a note that he loves this track and could qualify very well here (Race Pace is still quite bad). I wish I found a way to bet him, but honestly I didn’t see a Qualifying Top 10 market so this would have been my only real opportunity that I saw.

Consider:

Verstappen and Perez Top 2 +150 – Glad I didn’t bet this one.

Verstappen, Perez, Norris in order of finish +700 – I have these bets other ways, price doesn’t feel high enough.

Singapore GP – Projected Order of Finish:

1. George Russell
2. Lando Norris
3. Lewis Hamilton
4. Max Verstappen
5. Carlos Sainz
6. Charles Leclerc
7. Sergio Perez
8. Fernando Alonso
9. Esteban Ocon
10. Pierre Gasly
11. Oscar Piastri
12. Yuki Tsunoda
13. Lance Stroll
14. Kevin Magnussen
15. Nico Hulkenburg
16. Valtteri Bottas
17. Liam Lawson
18. Alexander Albon
19. Zhou Guanyu
20. Logan Sargeant