Before providing any commentary on any teams or drivers, there are a few things we know about Singapore from Drive to Survive and watching prior races. Above all else, the track is widely considered the most physically and mentally demanding track by every driver on the grid. The turns are nearly constant with limited straights to rest the body and mind. What this means right away is that we should focus on the best drivers on the grid. When considering this is a street circuit and the race is at night the quality of the driver becomes even more important. In terms of car strengths this circuit is quite different than Monza with far more tight turns than high-speed straights. So cars like Ferrari and Williams that enjoyed high top-speed advantages won’t have the same edge heading into this weekend.

Let’s start by looking at the current odds to win, finish on the podium, finish Top 6, and finish Top 10 for each driver. I will also include my initial thoughts on each driver based on how the market values them for the Singapore race so we can narrow down lines to target that may have value against our handicap of the race.

Max Verstappen -350 / -800 / -900 / -1100 – There is likely value on Max to win the race. Verstappen is such a professional driver that he is clearly the most physically and mentally prepared for this track. At only -350 this feels like a discount. The only fear would be that Perez does seem to be gifted when it comes to street circuits, but he has quite the gap to make up if he wants to challenge Max.

Sergio Perez +1100 / -190 / -600 / -900 – If he really is in the same car as his teammate and even remotely on the same planet as his teammate, Max, then he should be able to challenge on this circuit given his history on street circuits. I’m hesitant to back him though just because there seem to be too many questions about his quality as a driver. Even if Max doesn’t win the race, there may be more value targeting another driver besides Sergio given the location of this circuit and the skills it requires. There are too many places to make a mistake for me to back Sergio here. If this were Monaco or Azerbaijan the +1100 would be very tempting, but at Singapore I’ll have to pass.

Lando Norris +2100 / +180 / -350 / -800 – I don’t know what to expect from them from week to week. They have been making plenty of upgrades and have clearly been the 2nd best car at times, but Mercedes has been more consistent. I learned recently that McLaren is regularly last when it comes to top speed so that must mean they have the edge in the turns. And with so many turns in Singapore and a car that seems to have a ton of downforce from what I’ve heard in prior races. This may be a time to take a chance on Lando to podium. I wish I had a better price than +180 though so I may hold off and look for a better way to bet him.

Lewis Hamilton +2100 / +180 / -450 / -800 – Lewis would be the safe choice with so much experience at Singapore and a car that should be quite solid under the conditions. This wouldn’t be a bad bet, but I’m not anxious to place any money behind Lewis just yet. There may be better value elsewhere (like in the other side of the garage).

Fernando Alonso +2500 / +250 / -350 / -800 – This is a question of experience vs. age. On one hand he is a very skilled driver, but on the other a grueling race like this may be even more difficult at his age. So I’m not sure if I want to back him. Aston Martin has appeared to struggle lately, but they are pretty good on twisty tracks it seems. I still think their price could be a little steep here at only +250 to podium I think there is likely a better bet out there than any of these.

George Russell +3100 / + 450 / -275 / -600 – While the results of this year have shown Hamilton to be the better driver, I can’t help but to think Russell is still capable of outperforming him at any moment. With such a better price on George it is hard to justify putting too much money behind Lewis if you like the Mercedes car. Maybe betting Mercedes as a constructor would be a good bet in the right circumstance. But I think I will end up with at least something on George this weekend.

Carlos Sainz +3700 / +330 / +100 / -500 – If anything I will be fading Sainz this week. He is coming off a great weekend in Monza, but both his car and driving ability will work against him here I fear. I may be against him in some head to heads.

Charles Leclerc +4000 / +300 / +100 / -500 – I expect Charles to be the best Ferrari, but that may not quite be good enough to get him any closer than 6th. I can’t see him with a podium and think he is more likely to finish outside the top 6 than to podium in the long run. There may be value betting him against his teammate, Carlos Sainz, this week.

Oscar Piastri +4400 / +500 / -200 / -600 – This is the circuit that can really show us how good Oscar really is. I don’t think it is likely a good strategy to bet a driver so new to Formula 1 at such a difficult circuit though so I will pass on him this week.

Lance Stroll +25000 / +2500 / +900 / -105 – He has to show some life to get any consideration from me. His performances lately have been beyond disappointing. The market seems to agree with me though with such a low price for him given the perceived quality of his car based on where Fernando’s prices are.

Esteban Ocon +40000 / +8000 / +1000 / -105 – Not sure what to expect from Alpine this weekend. Coming off such a rough weekend I would need to see something from them before I back them in any way.

Pierre Gasly +40000 /+8000 / +1000 / -105 – Same notes as Ocon for now. However, Gasly tends to step up sometimes when conditions are the most difficult, so I find myself more willing to back him than Ocon in this spot. Look for potential value in Head to Heads. I don’t see enough value in -105 for the top 10.

Alexander Albon +42000 / +8000 / +1000 / -105 – He is a great driver and that is something that is worth a lot at this circuit. However, Williams will struggle at a circuit with so few straights, and they are coming off of their top track of the year so there likely isn’t any value betting Albon this weekend.

Yuki Tsunoda +50000 / +20000 / +6500 / +350 – I don’t feel confident backing Yuki in Singapore, nor would I feel good fading him.

Liam Lawson +100000 / +20000 / +6500 / +400 – His inexperience will show here more than anywhere else. There may be opportunities to fade him.

Valtteri Bottas +100000 / +20000 / +6500 / +350 – I can’t see him having too much success here, but he is too experienced to fade.

Guanyu Zhou +100000 / +20000 / +8000 / +650 – I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing him. Not sure how to value Zhou heading into Singapore.

Nico Hulkenburg +150000 / +20000 / +8000 / +700 – His driving skill may come through in qualifying, but Haas has no race pace at all.

Kevin Magnussen +150000 / +20000 / +8000 / +700 – I believe him to be the worst on the grid at the moment.

Logan Sargeant +200000 / +20000 / +10000 / +1200 – There may actually be value on him this weekend. Williams is not strong at this circuit, but a head to head against Magnussen or Lawson could have some value on it.

Betting thoughts based on these initial lines:

Max Verstappen to Win -350 – I would call this a Lean for now, but it could turn into a bet. I’m not experienced enough to know if this price will go up after Practice 1 and 2 so I may just wait for now before calling this an official bet.

Lando Norris to Podium +180 – The price isn’t high enough to even call this a lean right now, but I would consider it. They put in some really great performances with apparently the lowest top speed on the grid. I think it could lend itself well to this track and we know Lando is a talented driver.

George Russell to Podium +450 – This is a bet right now. The price is too good for potentially the best driver in potentially the 2nd best car. There has to be value on this bet at this track.

Lance Stroll Top 10 -105 – Consider for now, I’d like to wait until after practice before making this bet. I believe after last week there is value in this bet considering he is going to be in a far better car than many other drivers priced similarly.

Pierre Gasly Top 10 -105 – Consider for now. I’d like to see how practice goes, but Gasly seems to setp up in tough races so I could see him doing well here.

Zhou Guanyu Top 10 +650 – This is a value bet I would make right now. Zhou doesn’t have much experience, but he isn’t someone I would consider to be a bad driver. His odds to finish in the top 10 are far better than his teammate (Bottas) and are almost on par with Haas numbers. This is a play just based on a price that I feel is too high.

Another bet I would consider here is Winning Margin for the race. Lines are:

0 – 5.999 seconds +150

6 or more seconds -210

Winning Margin Under 6 Seconds +150 – Lean for now – On one hand, when Verstappen gets the lead he extends it easily beyond 6 seconds, but I think with this being a street circuit the playing field may be leveled some. If Verstappen does get the lead it may be possible for Sergio or others to hang with Max. This is one possibility, but there are other ways the bet can win. If Max does not finish the race it is likely this ticket cashes regardless of who wins. Additionally, it wouldn’t completely shock me to see someone edge out Max in qualifying and it may be difficult for him to get by. One final consideration would be if there is a safety car late in the race while people are racing for final positions. If a safety car closes the gap late it will be much more difficult to extend the lead in the final laps. There are several ways I could see this bet cashing and +150 is a decent price. I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger.

Bet:

George Russell to Podium +450

Zhou Guanyu Top 10 +650

Lean:

Max Verstappen to Win -350

Consider:

Lando Norris to Podium +180

Lance Stroll Top 10 -105

Pierre Gasly Top 10 -105

Winning Margin Under 6 seconds +150