I am walking blindly into the 2023 season with little to no preparation, but sometimes that is the best way to start when it comes to learning a sport. Of course the NFL isn’t entirely new to me, I’ve been betting it for years. However, I haven’t had a particular method or model that I have used which means I haven’t done a lot of tracking when it comes to how well I have done. I think I have done well over the years, but I have no metrics to prove it. So we will see what we can learn about the market itself while building a model to use starting next year.

I should take time to mention the history of “Guessing Lines” for those who won’t immediately recognize it. Gill Alexander does a Guessing Lines show with Chris Andrews from the South Point in Las Vegas every Monday. That show is an ode to an old Stardust show by the same name. It is a great format to methodically look at Week 2 matchups in this case through the lens of what happened with each team in Week 1. Each game analysis will have breakdowns of prior weeks games, adjustments to the teams overall power ratings, and a prediction for the week 2 line. I will then compare my guess to the actual line and determine if I would consider a bet at the moment or not. Betting considerations will include considerations, leans, and actual bets based on confidence.

Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Vikings were -4.5 point favorites at home vs Tampa Bay and lost 20-17. The passing game was better than the running game, the defense was average with the pass rush falling below average. I moved them down a half point in my power rankings.

The Eagles were -3.5 point favorites on the road vs. New England and won 25-20. Their offense was just okay with Hurts being the bright spot. Their run defense was stellar, but they will look for some improvements to their secondary. I’ll keep them where they are for now and wait to learn more in week 2.

This is a big matchup early in the season. My power rankings show the Eagles as 4.5 point favorites or -6.5 at home. This line feels too high right now based on where these teams are so I would expect a -5 or -5.5 number most likely. The actual line right now is -7.5. I would take the Vikings +7.5 right now because the number just feels too high against a quality team this early in the season.

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Bears were -1.5 favorites at home and lost 38-20 to Green Bay. Justin Fields struggled and so did his line and receivers. The run game was a major bright spot for Chicago though if the passing game can figure it out. The defense couldn’t get much of a pass rush going and didn’t do much better in coverage, but the run defense was solid enough. I think I need to drop them a full point here given the performance, but it wouldn’t shock me to see them rising back up.

The Buccaneers won 20-17 on the road at Minnesota as +4.5 point underdogs. Baker Mayfield looked great and the run game was there but not much more. The run defense and tackling were the highlight on the other side of the ball with coverage needing to improve. I’ll adjust them up a half of a point because while I’m not ready to believe in Baker just yet, I didn’t expect to see that much from him early on.

With my power ratings the Bears are a half point worse than the Buccaneers so I’ll say with their performances in week 1 the Buccaneers will be a -2 point favorite, but I think this game is going to be seen as pretty even by the market and may move back to even. It looks like this game opened Bears -1 but is currently Buccaneers -2.5. I would only consider the Bears in this spot, if I can tease the Bears to +8.5 that is a solid teaser leg that I would grab right now.

Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

The Packers won 38-20 on the road in Chicago as +1.5 point underdogs. The offensive line was stellar even if Love didn’t take advantage of it as much as he could have. It was the defense that really shined in this victory with the rushing defense slightly better than the coverage. Tackling was the weak spot. I’m choosing to move the Packers up a full point in my power rankings, but the jury is still out on Jordan Love for sure. This may be a tough team to predict this season.

The Falcons won 24-10 at home as -3.5 point favorites against Carolina. The passing offense was bad for the Falcons, but the run game was solid. The defense was good all around with coverage being the highlight. They may have gotten a boost from a really bad Carolina team so I am only going to upgrade a half point.

This leaves the Packers as 3.5 points better than the Falcons so they would be -2 point favorites on the road. I’m willing to bet the market pushes them to at least -3 though before kickoff. Checking the line it appears to have opened Falcons -1, but has since moved to Packers -1.5. I’m not sure I’m prepared to back either team.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

The Colts lost 31-21 at home to the Jaguars as +3.5 point underdogs. Anthony Richardson’s offense didn’t show much in the air or on the ground in the loss. The defense though played very well with the rushing defense being the highlight for the Colts. I’m not ready to downgrade the Colts yet. I still expect them to rise.

The Texans lost 25-9 on the road in Baltimore as +9.5 point underdogs. The offensive line didn’t have a great performance so the Texans couldn’t get anything going on offense. Their defense was average at best for the most part, but their coverage downfield showed signs of being a great unit for them. I can’t upgrade them yet.

My ratings show the Colts as the better team by a point which would make this game Texans -0.5. The actual line shows a movement from Texans -1 to Texans -1.5. I would only look Indianapolis here and make take a chance with Anthony Richardson in this spot. This could be a great teaser leg with Chicago or another team.

Seattle Seahawks @ Detroit Lions

The Seahawks lost 30-13 as -4.5 point favorites at home against the Rams. Nothing was really good for the Seahawks in this game, but the pass coverage was the low point for sure. I want to avoid overreacting to them too much so I will limit this to a 1 point downgrade and hope to see more from them next week.

The Lions were +3.5 point underdogs on the road against the Chiefs and won 21-20. Goff played as well as Mahomes did and the offensive line was stellar. The run game and pass rush held its own with a solid performance and the run defense was very strong. There were tackling concerns and plenty of holes in the secondary. I didn’t see enough here to adjust them at all in the power ratings. Take away from drops by the Chiefs and the spread would have been dead on.

My numbers show the Lions as 2.5 points better and I’m expecting a line of -4.5 for the game. Checking the market Lions have moved from -3 to -5.5. The numbers in this range aren’t far apart so this full point isn’t a large edge. I wouldn’t feel great backing either team in this spot until I see more from them.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans

The Chargers lost 36-34 at home to the Dolphins as -3 point favorites. On offense the Chargers looked dominant even without Herbert having his best game. The Defense was quite bad though with the Pass Rush being the only piece that even reached the threshold of average. I downgraded them a half point for their defense.

The Titans lost 16-15 on the road in New Orleans as +3 point underdogs. The rushing game was solid, but the QB and receiver play was not good. The pass rush had its moments, but the rest of the defense was average and would have been exposed more if not for the pass rush. No adjustments are necessary for Tennessee.

By my numbers the Chargers are 7 points better, with them being on the road I see the Chargers being -6 point favorites. The actual line is Chargers -3 right now which would be a bet for me. The Chargers aren’t penalized much for going on the road and I can see their offense getting even better. The pass rush won’t be as disruptive against this line, and even if the Chargers can’t stop Henry it will be tough for the Titans offense to keep up.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens won 25-9 at home as -9.5 point favorites to the Texans. The offense wasn’t nearly as electric as we have come to expect, but the offensive line was solid enough to keep them scoring. the run game was disappointing which isn’t something we are used to with Baltimore. I already felt like they were under rated in my rankings so I was looking for a reason to move them up, but I didn’t get that reason even though they won and covered. No adjustment this week.

The Bengals were -1.5 point favorites on the road in Cleveland and lost 24-3. The offensive never showed up with Joe Burrow not even threatening 100 yards passing. The running game was okay but no thanks to the blocking. The defense wasn’t much better. This team was just not prepared to play. I’m downgrading 1.5 points.

I see these teams as pretty close to even right now which would mean the Bengals should be favorited by -2 or -2.5 points, but the market may not let it get that high with their dismal performance last week. Checking the line I see so far the line has been bet down from -3.5 to -3. I’m not so sure Ravens +3 will last so it may be worth grabbing a piece of that number now.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills

The Raiders won 17-16 on the road in Denver as +3 point underdogs. The passing game was actually quite good for Vegas and the defense wasn’t bad either. They aren’t great at stopping the run, but overall I saw enough from them to upgrade them a half of a point for the next game which will be a tough one.

The Bills lost 22-16 in overtime on the road at the Jets as -2.5 point favorites in a game where Aaron Rodgers went down with a season ending injury on the first play. Josh Allen was awful by his standards, the running game wasn’t much better. The secondary and pass rush was okay, but that was against Zach Wilson. The Bills didn’t have much of an answer for the running game. According to the spread it wasn’t an awful performance, but that was an Aaron Rodgers spread. With Wilson Bills would have been favorited by at lest -7 on the road. I have to downgrade the Bills a full point here.

Still, the Bills are going to be a big favorite at home. It will be more than 7, but the market likely won’t let it get as high as 10. I’ll Say Bills -8.5 at home. The actual line opened Bills -9.5 and moved down a point to -8.5. It looks like the market agrees with me on the line and the amount to downgrade the Bills by based on this performance. Going through this exercise already has me feeling better about my NFL handicapping.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The Chiefs were -3.5 point favorites at home and lost 21-20 to the Lions. Pat Mahomes played well, but his receivers struggled with drops in big moments. Otherwise the spread would have been accurate. The run game wasn’t impressive and neither was the defense. I don’t want to overreact too much though, but I think there were enough concerns to drop them a full point at least until they get some weapons back.

The Jaguars won 31-21 on the road in Indianapolis as -3.5 point favorites. Trever Lawrence was very good, the coaching was good, the tackling was good. Overall it was a great showing for the Jaguars and they faced adversity in this game and punched back quickly. There was a lot to like here, upgraded a half point.

The Chiefs are 2.5 points better by my numbers which would make them -1 point road favorites. I’m expecting the line to be higher though, but it shouldn’t get to 3. The market disagrees and has the Chiefs right at 3 points. I’m not sure if I’m ready to take Jacksonville +3 right now, I don’t think it will come off that number.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

The 49ers went into Pittsburgh as -1.5 point favorites and won 30-7. They dominated on defense on a level only rivaled later by Dallas. The offense was good too despite what appears to be a rough game for the offensive line. If that line plays like it is capable of and Brock Purdy keeps playing like this, they will compete for a super bowl. I’m going to limit myself to a 0.5 point upgrade because there are still questions, but I would feel comfortable backing this team.

The Rams went on the road to Seattle of all places and kicked ass as a +4.5 point underdog. Sure Seattle didn’t have their best game, but Stafford was Excellent and so was his offensive line. The running game was solid and the pass rush is always going to be there. The secondary is vulnerable, but this team is better than many were giving it credit for. I’m going to include myself in that and increase them by 1.5 points in my power ratings.

My new numbers give the 49ers an 8 point edge. This will be the real test of my ratings. I’m going to guess the 49ers will be -7 point favorites on the road in LA. It feels good when you absolutely nail one. This number is going to be available for a while. I could see teasing down the 49ers, but -7 on the road is high for week 2.

New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals

The Giants had quite possibly the worst football game of all time on Sunday Night losing 40-0 at home to the Cowboys. The offense never showed up, tackling was somehow rated very high but I’m guessing that is just because they had to make so many of them. Not much else to say, I’m downgrading them 2.5 points.

The Cardinals lost on the road in Washington 20-16 as +6.5 point underdogs. Not a lot to comment on here, no adjustments to the power rating.

This is a tough line with how bad the Giants were, but they should still be a road favorite in Arizona. I’m expecting the line to be -2.5. Wow, this one is shocking to me, it is hard to imagine this Giants team as -4.5 point road favorites over anyone. This could be a teaser spot for Arizona if we can get over 10 points.

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys went into New York to take on the Giants as -3.5 point favorites and dominated in every phase of the game. The pass rush and coverage were exceptionally elite. The offense didn’t even appear to have their best game and were helped by a defensive and special teams touchdown. I believe in the offense, but I also believe the Giants played like a very bad football team. I’ll increase the Cowboys by a full point though because they earned it more than anyone in Week 1.

The Jets had a hell of a ride in Week 1. Aaron Rodgers went from leading them onto the field carrying an American Flag in the spotlight to being carted off in the first drive. Then Jets fans watched Zach Wilson run out there again and hopes did not appear to be high. The play wasn’t either at first, but the defense kept them in the game and they were able to beat the Bills in overtime on an exciting punt return. In the end they won 22-16 in overtime, but we are going to have to make some adjustments here. First, based on the gameplay I would upgrade the Jets a full point for their defensive performance and a strong running game. However, we have the question of what Aaron Rodgers is worth. In Green Bay he was wroth 7 points, but this was a place where he was the cornerstone of the offense. In New York he had not yet grown used to playing with his teammates so his impact will be less. As much as Zach Wilson has struggled though, at least he has experience. Ultimately, 4.5 points seems to be the right number. This leaves us with a 3.5 point downgrade overall.

This will be a tough one, but by my numbers the Cowboys are now 5 points better with the Jets. This would make them a 7 point favorite at home. I could see this number going to -7.5 though. Checking the odds now makes me feel the need to add the disclaimer that I’m not doing this for any notoriety at this point so there is no advantage to cheating at this exercise, I’m just trying to get some practice and it feels good when it works out. After all of those adjustments and analysis the line is now at Cowboys -7.5 and had moved 4.5 points based on the news and performance of both teams.

Washington Commanders @ Denver Broncos

The Commanders won 20-16 at home as -6.5 point favorites over the Cardinals. the defense was great, especially the run defense. The offensive line played well, the offense could have taken advantage of it more. No reason to adjust them in my rankings, I like where they are relative to other teams.

The Broncos lost 17-16 at home to the Raiders as -3 point favorites. The passing offense outperformed the rushing, but neither stood out too much. The defense was not as good as I would have expected against a young quarterback. I still don’t think I’m going to downgrade them, I can see them bouncing back.

I have the Commanders 1 point better than the Broncos which would make the Broncos -1 point favorites in the game. Wow, I did hesitate a bit thinking maybe I should have the Broncos higher in my power ratings, but I never would have expected this line to be Broncos -3.5. I would consider a bet on Washington +3.5 here before it goes down to +3.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots

the Dolphins won 36-34 on the road at the Chargers as +3 point underdogs. Tua had the game of his life which masks any issues the Dolphins had and there were issues. Pretty much every unit outside of QB and receivers still have more to prove before I raise their ranking too high, but they earned a half point.

The Patriots lost 25-20 at home to the Eagles as +3.5 point underdogs. The defense was solid, the offense slightly less than solid. No adjustments needed.

I have the Dolphins as 3.5 points better than the Patriots which would put the line at Dolphins -1.5. Actual line is Dolphins -2. Tempting, but stay away for now.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers

The Saints won 16-15 at home against the Titans as -3 point favorites. The passing game was good, but the offensive line and run game was not. Defensively, the run defense struggled but overall it was a solid performance by the Saints. No reason to adjust my power rating for them, though.

The Panthers were +3.5 point underdogs on the road in Atlanta and lost 24-10. The passing game was horrible and the run game wasn’t much better. They had the worst tackling grade of week 1. The only bright spot was a pass rush that was well above average. This was bad enough that I am dropping them a full point.

The Saints are now 2.5 points better in my rankings which would make them a -1 point favorite on the road. It wouldn’t surprise me if the actual line is higher than that. Sure enough, the actual line is Saints -2.5. I need to see more from both of these teams before I consider either of these sides.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

The Browns won 24-3 at home as +1.5 point underdogs with an impressive showing primarily in the secondary. It is going to be very hard to pass on this team. Desean Watson hasn’t even started to play well yet and this team is winning big games with an elite pass rush and secondary. They could be vulnerable to a strong running attack, but shutting down this offense is worth a full point in my power ratings, but I need to be cautious.

The Steelers laid an egg at home losing 30-7 to the 49ers as a +1.5 point underdog. The Steelers pass rush was the best of any team, but that was the only bright spot. The offensive line was very bad protecting the young QB. I have to drop them by at least a point in my power ratings.

The adjusted ratings here have the Browns as 3 points better which would make them -1 point favorites on the road. I feel like this line could be as high as Browns -3 after last week though. The market this year is doing a great job at not overreacting since the actual line is Browns -1.5. This is a lean to the Browns if anything, but I should stay away and trust my numbers are stronger than my desire to bet the Browns here.

Betting Lines and Status:

Vikings +7 -110 @ Eagles -7 -105 – I would consider a bet at Vikings +7.5, but that is not yet available anywhere. Eagles can be a strong teaser leg.

Chargers -3 -110 @ Titans +3 -104 – Chargers -3 is a bet for me.

Packers -1 -112 @ Falcons +1.5 -109 – Teasing the Falcons is tempting and worth consideration, but it doesn’t feel confident.

Colts -1 -110 @ Texans +1.5 -108 – I was hoping to get Colts as an underdog. I am still considering them at -1, but will hold off for now.

Seahawks +6 -110 @ Lions -5.5 -108 – I’m not sure I can pull the trigger on Seahawks +6, but I could tease it up to +12.

Bears +3 -110 @ Buccaneers -3 -110 – I was going to use this as a teaser leg, but at +3 this is worth a bet on the Bears.

Chiefs -3 -110 @ Jaguars +3 -110 – I don’t see myself having an opinion on this game. I’ll just enjoy it.

Ravens +3.5 -110 @ Bengals -3.5 +100 – Ravens +3.5 is an autobet for me until Cincy proves it.

Giants -4 -110 @ Cardinals +4.5 -115 – The Cardinals feel like the right side here or in a teaser, but it is hard to pull the trigger.

49ers -8 -108 @ Rams +8.5 -110 – Teasing down the 49ers will be a popular play and one that I can get behind.

Commanders +3.5 -110 @ Broncos -3.5 -105 – I feel like I could be getting the better team +3.5 here and it is hard to pass that up.

Dolphins -2 -115 @ Patriots +2.5 -108 – I’m listening to my numbers here and staying away from this one.

Jets +9.5 -110 @ Cowboys -9.5 -110 – This is getting out of hand in terms of the line, but I’m not sure I can talk myself into the Jets here.

Raiders +9.5 -110 @ Bills -9.5 -110 – A point higher than I expected, but no bet in this range. I’m not sure I would even take the Raiders if it gets to 10.

Saints -3 -110 @ Panthers +3.5 -115 – This is a lean for now, but I could see Bryce Young playing well in his home debut and the pass rush could cause problems.

Browns -1.5 -112 @ Steelers +2.5 -115 – I’m going to tease this game up to +8.5 to the Steelers immediately to take advantage of this line, I can’t bet the Steelers at less than that.

Bets

Chicago Bears +3 -110

Los Angeles Chargers -3 -110

Ravens +3.5 -110

Washington Commanders +3.5 -110

(Teaser) Pittsburgh Steelers +8.5 & San Francisco 49ers -2.5 -120

(Teaser) San Francisco 49ers -2.5 & Philadelphia Eagles -1 -120

(Teaser) Philadelphia Eagles -1 & Seattle Seahawks +12 -120

Leans

Carolina Panthers +3.5 -115

Seattle Seahawks +6 -110

Consider:

Indianapolis Colts -1 -110

Cardinals +4.5 -115